Aston Villa vs Viking prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Aston Villa to win: 75%, about 3 in 4
We're a little less confident in Aston Villa than the bookmakers (3 percentage points): Increased draw probability and away team chance due to Viking's recent high-scoring draw. Why
The Verdict
Our numbers moved away from the bookmakers by slightly increasing the draw probability and the away team's chance. The Sceptic's view regarding the draw was not followed, despite it having the largest shift.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsThe high-scoring nature of the competition suggests goals will be plentiful.
All key players for both Aston Villa and Viking are available. Furthermore, Aston Villa's set-piece coach, Pal Fjall, is linked to Viking.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureThe high-scoring nature of the competition suggests an open and unpredictable match.
Aston Villa recently won their last game 1-0. Viking finished last season with seven consecutive wins and recently drew 3-3 with Bayern Munich. Viking's assistant coach is set-piece coach at Aston Villa.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe high goal average in this competition suggests a match with multiple goals is likely.
The competition this season averages 4.33 goals per match. Furthermore, Viking's assistant coach is set-piece coach at Aston Villa.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Aston Villa, currently 4th, hosts Viking, who are 29th in the table. The Champions League fixture is expected to be high-scoring, given the competition's average goal rate. Viking brings attacking threat, while Villa benefits from home advantage.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Aston Villa win or draw
- 90%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 85%
- Viking win or draw
- 25%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 66%
- 4+ goals
- 44%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 2.6 goals from Aston Villa and 0.8 from Viking. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 3–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 3–1 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 78% | 14% | 8% | 76% |
| AI analysts | 48% | 26% | 26% | 75% |
| Our forecast | 75% | 15% | 10% | – |
Verdict: Our final probabilities remain close to the market, though they shift slightly toward a draw and the away team. This is primarily due to the high goal expectation set by the competition.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 81% | 13% | 7% | Stats preview | #414 | |
| 2 | 78% | 14% | 8% | Prices moved | #451 | |
| 3 | 75% | 15% | 10% | Updated news and prices | #460 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Aston Villa: last 6
WWDWWL · 16 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Newcastle Premier League | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Fenerbahçe | 6–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Brentford Premier League | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Tottenham Premier League | 3–2 | W |
| 16 Sep | at Coventry League Cup | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Nottingham Forest Premier League | 1–2 | L |
Last 4 at home: WDLL
Viking: last 5
WDLWD · 12 scored, 11 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Fredrikstad Eliteserien | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Bayern München | 3–3 | D |
| 9 Sep | at VfB Stuttgart | 1–3 | L |
| 26 Aug | vs Dinamo Zagreb | 3–1 | W |
| 18 Aug | at Dinamo Zagreb | 2–2 | D |
Last 2 away: LD
Season stats
| Aston Villa | Viking | |
|---|---|---|
| 4.50 | Goals scored per game | 2.25 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 2.25 |
| 6.00 | Scored per game at home | 3.00 |
| 3.00 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 100% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 100% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 100% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 2 and 4 games.
Champions League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| … | |||||
| 29 | RB Leipzig | 3 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 30 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | -6 | 2 | DLD |
| 31 | Slavia Praha | 3 | -3 | 1 | DLL |
| 32 | Viking | 3 | -4 | 1 | LDL |
| 33 | Sabah FC | 0 | +0 | 0 | |
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | -4 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 | Lille | 3 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1Z. Suzuki
Defenders
- 35João Gomes
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 14Pau Torres
- 5T. Mings
Midfielders
- 7J. McGinn
- 6R. Barkley
- 47Alysson Edward
- 10E. Buendía
- 19I. Mbaye
Forward
- 11N. Jackson
Substitutes (11)
- 40M. Bizot
- 26L. Bogarde
- 2M. Cash
- 17A. Garnacho
- 27L. Goretzka
- 4T. Harwood-Bellis
- 53George Hemmings
- 8B. Kamara
- 22I. Maatsen
- 42J. Wright
- 18T. Abraham
Goalkeeper
- 1A. Østbø
Defenders
- 2H. Haugen
- 6G. Stensness
- 27J. Daland
- 5H. Heggheim
Midfielders
- 29T. Moi
- 8J. Bell
- 7K. Askildsen
Forwards
- 20P. Christiansen
- 22E. Botheim
- 10Z. Tripić
Substitutes (12)
- 24Vetle Auklend
- 17E. Bassey
- 30Ľ. Belko
- 16H. Bjørdal
- 19A. Cosic
- 28K. Haugen
- 3V. Vevatne
- 23N. Fuglestad
- 26S. Kvia-Egeskog
- 11R. Postema
- 33J. Hansen
- 25H. Falchener
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutJ. ManzambiCalf
- OutA. OnanaKnee
- OutM. RuggeriMuscle
Show 3 more
- OutA. Wan-BissakaMuscle
- OutM. CisseOff the roster
- OutB. MadjoOff the roster
- OutA. BaertelsenFoot
- OutV. BerishaThigh
- OutS. BjorsholKnee
Show 3 more
- OutN. D'AgostinoLeg
- OutM. RosethKnee
- OutK. FrimpongOff the roster
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Aston Villa is 4th in the table with 6 points accumulated from two games.[1]
- Viking is 29th in the table, having secured 1 point from their two matches.[1]
- Aston Villa's league record at home this season is one win, zero draws, and zero losses.[1]
- Viking's away record this season includes one draw and one loss.[1]
- The competition's average goal rate is 4.33 goals per match.[2]
- Viking's assistant coach holds the position of set-piece coach at Aston Villa.[2]
Sources
- sportsmole.co.uk – Aston Villa vs Viking FK - Champions League - October 21, 2026 - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings - Football - Sports Mole (2026-10-21)
- bbc.co.uk – 'I've waited 34 years for this' - Viking's 'special' story (2026-10-21)
Match context
- Rest days
- Aston Villa 4Viking 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Aston Villa 3 · Viking 2
- Referee
- Sebastian Gishamer
- Coaches
- Unai Emery
- Aston Villa, since Nov 2022
- Goals in this league
- Champions League average: 4.33 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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