Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Vélez Sarsfield to win: 49%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 62% · bookies 62%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three land near the published numbers: a home side second in the table with the better recent run, against a low-scoring away side that has failed to score in 42% of matches.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Vélez Sarsfield's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersA tight, low-scoring home win based on the goal profiles.
Both teams score only 29% for the visitors, so a one-sided scoreline looks more likely than goals at both ends.
San Lorenzo: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSecond hosts ninth with nothing to fear but dropped points.
Vélez sit 2nd on 55 points from 31 games; San Lorenzo are 9th on 41. The hosts have lost once in six (5-0 at Central Cordoba last time) while the visitors have one win in six.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongSan Lorenzo's low scoring could make the 49% home price look light.
San Lorenzo fail to score in 42% of matches and average 0.50 away; 2+ goals land only 16% of their games, yet over 2.5 is priced at 38%. Home win at 49% looks fair or slightly light, so I shade Vélez up and the total down.
Vélez Sarsfield: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Vélez Sarsfield are favourites at 49%, with San Lorenzo on 22% and the draw on 29%. Vélez Sarsfield are 2nd and San Lorenzo 9th in Liga Profesional. In their last five league games, Vélez Sarsfield won three and San Lorenzo two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Vélez Sarsfield win or draw
- 78%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- San Lorenzo win or draw
- 51%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 64%
- 3+ goals
- 37%
- 4+ goals
- 18%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 42%
- No
- 58%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Vélez Sarsfield and 0.8 from San Lorenzo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (15%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%), 2–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% | 29% | 22% | Stats preview | #2140 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Vélez Sarsfield: last 6
WWLDWD · 12 scored, 7 conceded
| 26 Oct | at Central Cordoba de Santiago | 5–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Gimnasia M. | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | at Lanus | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Oct | vs Platense | 2–2 | D |
| 21 Sep | vs Tigre | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Newells Old Boys | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: WDWWD
San Lorenzo: last 6
DWWLLD · 4 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Newells Old Boys | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Estudiantes L.P. | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Deportivo Riestra | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Defensa Y Justicia | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Boca Juniors | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Independiente | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: WLDLD
Season stats
| Vélez Sarsfield | San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.32 | Goals scored per game | 0.71 |
| 0.84 | Goals conceded per game | 0.87 |
| 1.19 | Scored per game at home | 0.93 |
| 1.47 | Scored per game away | 0.50 |
| 29% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 16% |
| 52% | Both teams scored | 29% |
| 39% | Clean sheets | 48% |
| 16% | Failed to score | 42% |
League matches only, 31 games each.
Liga Profesional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boca Juniors | 31 | +20 | 57 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Vélez Sarsfield | 31 | +15 | 55 | WWLDW |
| 3 | Instituto Cordoba | 30 | +11 | 53 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Lanus | 31 | +8 | 48 | DWWDW |
| 5 | Defensa Y Justicia | 30 | +4 | 46 | WLWWD |
| 6 | Estudiantes L.P. | 31 | +10 | 45 | LLDWL |
| 7 | Independiente | 31 | +0 | 43 | LDDLW |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 32 | +1 | 41 | WDLLL |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 31 | -5 | 41 | DWWLL |
| 10 | Gimnasia M. | 30 | -7 | 39 | LLWLD |
| 11 | Newells Old Boys | 30 | -9 | 36 | DWLDW |
| 12 | Talleres Cordoba | 31 | -6 | 35 | LLDLL |
Match context
- Travel for San Lorenzo
- 0 km
- Rest days
- Vélez Sarsfield 5San Lorenzo 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Vélez Sarsfield 2 · San Lorenzo 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 19°C · wind 13 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Liga Profesional average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
