Boca Juniors vs River Plate prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Boca Juniors to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 63% · bookies 63%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
In short
Boca Juniors are slight favourites at 43%, with River Plate on 27% and the draw on 30%. Boca Juniors are 1st and River Plate 3rd in Liga Profesional. In their last five league games, Boca Juniors won four and River Plate three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Boca Juniors win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- River Plate win or draw
- 57%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 64%
- 3+ goals
- 37%
- 4+ goals
- 17%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 43%
- No
- 57%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Boca Juniors and 0.9 from River Plate. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%), 0–1 (11%), 2–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% | 30% | 27% | Stats preview | #2208 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Boca Juniors: last 6
WWWLDW · 11 scored, 5 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Independiente | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Oct | at Vasco DA Gama CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Talleres Cordoba | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Vasco DA Gama CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Instituto Cordoba | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Union Santa Fe | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWWW
River Plate: last 6
WWDWLW · 9 scored, 4 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Racing Club | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Belgrano Cordoba | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | at Sarmiento Junin | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Huracan | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Atletico Tucuman | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WDWWD
Season stats
| Boca Juniors | River Plate | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.48 | Goals scored per game | 1.38 |
| 0.84 | Goals conceded per game | 0.85 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.56 | Scored per game away | 1.21 |
| 42% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 35% |
| 52% | Both teams scored | 38% |
| 45% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 10% | Failed to score | 26% |
League matches only, 31 and 34 games.
Liga Profesional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boca Juniors | 31 | +20 | 57 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 31 | +15 | 55 | WWLDW |
| 3 | Instituto Cordoba | 30 | +11 | 53 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Lanus | 31 | +8 | 48 | DWWDW |
| … | |||||
| 1 | Rosario Central | 33 | +17 | 62 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Argentinos JRS | 32 | +13 | 61 | WDWLD |
| 3 | River Plate | 34 | +18 | 59 | WWDWL |
| 4 | Belgrano Cordoba | 34 | +11 | 58 | LLWWW |
| 5 | Gimnasia L.P. | 32 | +2 | 54 | WWDDD |
| 6 | Independ. Rivadavia | 30 | +9 | 53 | DLDWW |
Match context
- Travel for River Plate
- 0 km
- Rest days
- Boca Juniors 6River Plate 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Boca Juniors 2 · River Plate 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 24°C · wind 12 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Liga Profesional average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
