Lanús vs Gimnasia M. prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Lanús to win: 61%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 55% · bookies 55%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
In short
Lanús are clear favourites at 61%, with Gimnasia M. on 15% and the draw on 24%. Lanús are 4th and Gimnasia M. 10th in Liga Profesional. In their last five league games, Lanús won three and Gimnasia M. one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Lanús win or draw
- 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Gimnasia M. win or draw
- 39%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 45%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 43%
- No
- 57%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Lanús and 0.7 from Gimnasia M.. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (15%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% | 24% | 15% | Stats preview | #2207 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Lanús: last 6
DWWDWW · 9 scored, 2 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Banfield | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Platense | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs Velez Sarsfield | 2–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Newells Old Boys | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Sep | vs Estudiantes L.P. | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | at Deportivo Riestra | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWDL
Gimnasia M.: last 6
LLWLDL · 2 scored, 8 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Platense | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Velez Sarsfield | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Oct | vs Newells Old Boys | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Oct | at Estudiantes L.P. | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Deportivo Riestra | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sep | at Defensa Y Justicia | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLWW
Season stats
| Lanús | Gimnasia M. | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.13 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 0.87 | Goals conceded per game | 1.23 |
| 1.13 | Scored per game at home | 1.27 |
| 1.12 | Scored per game away | 0.73 |
| 35% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| 35% | Both teams scored | 40% |
| 45% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 32% | Failed to score | 37% |
League matches only, 31 and 30 games.
Liga Profesional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boca Juniors | 31 | +20 | 57 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 31 | +15 | 55 | WWLDW |
| 3 | Instituto Cordoba | 30 | +11 | 53 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Lanús | 31 | +8 | 48 | DWWDW |
| 5 | Defensa Y Justicia | 30 | +4 | 46 | WLWWD |
| 6 | Estudiantes L.P. | 31 | +10 | 45 | LLDWL |
| 7 | Independiente | 31 | +0 | 43 | LDDLW |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 32 | +1 | 41 | WDLLL |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 31 | -5 | 41 | DWWLL |
| 10 | Gimnasia M. | 30 | -7 | 39 | LLWLD |
| 11 | Newells Old Boys | 30 | -9 | 36 | DWLDW |
| 12 | Talleres Cordoba | 31 | -6 | 35 | LLDLL |
| 13 | Platense | 30 | -11 | 30 | WLDDL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Lanús 8Gimnasia M. 9
- Matches in the last 14 days: Lanús 1 · Gimnasia M. 1
- Goals in this league
- Liga Profesional average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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