Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Defensa y Justicia to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 59% · bookies 59%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The sceptic's note on Independiente's away form is the main counterweight, but the consensus points to a close, relatively low-scoring contest.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Coach thinks Defensa y Justicia are underrated; The Sceptic thinks Independiente are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersHome side's defensive record at this venue gives them the edge in a low-scoring match.
Independiente average 1.19 goals scored per game away.
Defensa y Justicia: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides sit mid-table high with little separating them, but the home run carries momentum.
Defensa y Justicia are 5th on 46 points from 30 games; Independiente 7th on 43 from 31. The hosts have won 4 of their last 6 and come in on 6 days rest, while Independiente played twice in 14 days and lost to Boca last time out. The tight points gap suggests a competitive, close game.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongIndependiente's away form is better than their price suggests.
Independiente are unbeaten in 5 away games (W3 D2), scoring 7 and conceding 3, yet are priced at only 28%. Defensa's 42% looks fair given their home run, but the visitors' away record and 55% both-teams-score rate argue for a tighter line. Goals market at 41% for over 2.5 seems broadly right.
Independiente: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Defensa y Justicia are slight favourites at 42%, with Independiente on 28% and the draw on 30%. Defensa y Justicia are 5th and Independiente 7th in Liga Profesional. In their last five league games, Defensa y Justicia won three and Independiente one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Defensa y Justicia win or draw
- 72%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Independiente win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 67%
- 3+ goals
- 40%
- 4+ goals
- 20%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 46%
- No
- 54%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Defensa y Justicia and 1.0 from Independiente. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (13%), 0–1 (10%), 0–0 (10%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 29% | 28% | Stats preview | #2132 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Defensa y Justicia: last 6
WLWWDW · 11 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Talleres Cordoba | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Oct | vs Instituto Cordoba | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Union Santa Fe | 2–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs San Lorenzo | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | at Central Cordoba de Santiago | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sep | vs Gimnasia M. | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWWWW
Independiente: last 6
LDDLWD · 5 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Boca Juniors | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Racing Club | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Oct | at Talleres Cordoba | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Oct | vs Instituto Cordoba | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Union Santa Fe | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs San Lorenzo | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: DDWWW
Season stats
| Defensa y Justicia | Independiente | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.27 | Goals scored per game | 1.19 |
| 1.13 | Goals conceded per game | 1.19 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game at home | 1.20 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 1.19 |
| 43% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 35% |
| 53% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 23% |
League matches only, 30 and 31 games.
Liga Profesional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 31 | +15 | 55 | WWLDW |
| 3 | Instituto Cordoba | 30 | +11 | 53 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Lanus | 31 | +8 | 48 | DWWDW |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 30 | +4 | 46 | WLWWD |
| 6 | Estudiantes L.P. | 31 | +10 | 45 | LLDWL |
| 7 | Independiente | 31 | +0 | 43 | LDDLW |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 32 | +1 | 41 | WDLLL |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 31 | -5 | 41 | DWWLL |
| 10 | Gimnasia M. | 30 | -7 | 39 | LLWLD |
Match context
- Travel for Independiente
- 22 km
- Rest days
- Defensa y Justicia 6Independiente 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Defensa y Justicia 1 · Independiente 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 24°C · wind 3 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Liga Profesional average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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