Sarmiento (Junín) vs Rosario Central prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Rosario Central to win: 49%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 57% · bookies 57%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three analyses converge on Rosario Central as the superior side, driven by their league position and defensive metrics. While Sarmiento shows some home scoring capability (1.33/game), the consistent form and statistical advantages of the away side make them the likely winners. The overall probability of more than 2.5 goals is high across all readings.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Coach thinks Sarmiento (Junín) are underrated; The Dressing Room thinks Rosario Central are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersRosario Central's defensive solidity and offensive output give them the statistical edge.
Rosario Central averages 0.91 goals conceded per game, significantly better than Sarmiento's 1.37. They score 1.42 goals per game, while Sarmiento averages 1.17.
Sarmiento (Junín): slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureRosario Central's top-of-the-table status and superior recent form present a strong challenge.
Rosario Central sits 1st in the table with 62 points from 33 games. They are in strong form, having won 5 of their last 6 matches. Sarmiento is 9th with 40 points, and has won only 1 of their last 6 fixtures.
Rosario Central: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market appears to correctly favour Rosario Central, though the draw probability might be slightly understated.
The published odds place Rosario Central at 49% and the draw at 28%. Rosario Central's season average of 48% over 2.5 goals is higher than Sarmiento's 47%. Rosario Central has failed to score only 18% of the time, compared to 23% for Sarmiento.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Rosario Central are favourites at 49%, with Sarmiento (Junín) on 23% and the draw on 28%. Sarmiento (Junín) are 9th and Rosario Central 1st in Liga Profesional. In their last five league games, Sarmiento (Junín) won one and Rosario Central four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sarmiento (Junín) win or draw
- 51%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Rosario Central win or draw
- 77%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 69%
- 3+ goals
- 42%
- 4+ goals
- 22%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 46%
- No
- 54%
We expect about 0.9 goals from Sarmiento (Junín) and 1.5 from Rosario Central. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (12%), 0–2 (10%), 0–0 (9%), 1–2 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23% | 28% | 49% | Stats preview | #1933 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sarmiento (Junín): last 6
LDDWLD · 7 scored, 9 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Gimnasia L.P. | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Oct | vs Barracas Central | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Oct | vs River Plate | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Aldosivi | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Racing Club | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Belgrano Cordoba | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: DDDWW
Rosario Central: last 6
WWWDWW · 13 scored, 3 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Huracan | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Atletico Tucuman | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Independ. Rivadavia | 5–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | at Banfield | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Argentinos JRS | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Tigre | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WDWDL
Season stats
| Sarmiento (Junín) | Rosario Central | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.17 | Goals scored per game | 1.42 |
| 1.37 | Goals conceded per game | 0.91 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 1.59 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 47% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| 53% | Both teams scored | 58% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 23% | Failed to score | 18% |
League matches only, 30 and 33 games.
Liga Profesional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 33 | +17 | 62 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Argentinos JRS | 32 | +13 | 61 | WDWLD |
| 3 | River Plate | 34 | +18 | 59 | WWDWL |
| 4 | Belgrano Cordoba | 34 | +11 | 58 | LLWWW |
| … | |||||
| 6 | Independ. Rivadavia | 30 | +9 | 53 | DLDWW |
| 7 | Huracan | 32 | +2 | 44 | LLLWW |
| 8 | Barracas Central | 30 | +2 | 43 | WDWWL |
| 9 | Sarmiento (Junín) | 30 | -6 | 40 | LDDWL |
| 10 | Racing Club | 32 | -5 | 36 | LDLWW |
| 11 | Tigre | 30 | +0 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 12 | Banfield | 30 | -7 | 32 | DLWDD |
Match context
- Travel for Rosario Central
- 185 km
- Rest days
- Sarmiento (Junín) 7Rosario Central 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sarmiento (Junín) 2 · Rosario Central 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 17°C · wind 6 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Liga Profesional average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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