Quilmes vs San Martín (Tucumán) prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Quilmes to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 61% · bookies 61% · ✗ 3 goals
The Verdict
All three readings land close to the published numbers: a Quilmes lean built on home form, rest and defensive records, with San Martin's away frailty and the low-scoring head-to-head history keeping the goals line below the published 39%. A narrow, low-scoring home result is the most consistent picture.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 2 think Quilmes's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo low-scoring profiles point to a tight, under-friendly contest decided by fine margins.
Quilmes fail to score in 56% of matches and keep clean sheets in 41%, while San Martin Tucuman average just 0.82 goals away. Both teams score just 21% of Quilmes games, so a one-sided scoreline looks likelier than a shootout.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureQuilmes' home strength and fresher legs edge a close mid-table affair.
Quilmes sit 14th on 39 points, three behind San Martin's 46 from 34 games, and arrive with 7 days' rest after one game in a fortnight. Their home form reads W3 L2 with 6 scored and 2 conceded. San Martin play a second game in five days and have lost three of their last five away.
Quilmes: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Quilmes are favourites at 47%, with San Martín (Tucumán) on 24% and the draw on 29%. Quilmes are 14th and San Martín (Tucumán) 10th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Quilmes won one and San Martín (Tucumán) two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Quilmes win or draw
- 76%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- San Martín (Tucumán) win or draw
- 53%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 66%
- 3+ goals
- 39%
- 4+ goals
- 19%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 44%
- No
- 56%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Quilmes and 0.9 from San Martín (Tucumán). (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%), 2–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% | 29% | 24% | Stats preview | #789 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Quilmes: last 6
LLDWLW · 3 scored, 5 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Atletico DE Rafaela | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Agropecuario | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Tristan Suarez | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Club Atlético Güemes | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Chacarita Juniors | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs San Martin S.J. | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWWLW
San Martín (Tucumán): last 6
WLWDLW · 11 scored, 9 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Midland | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Atlanta | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Gimnasia Y Tiro | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Sep | at Gimnasia Jujuy | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Atletico DE Rafaela | 2–4 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Agropecuario | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LDLLW
Season stats
| Quilmes | San Martín (Tucumán) | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.88 | Goals scored per game | 1.12 |
| 0.85 | Goals conceded per game | 1.03 |
| 1.12 | Scored per game at home | 1.41 |
| 0.65 | Scored per game away | 0.82 |
| 29% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 32% |
| 21% | Both teams scored | 44% |
| 41% | Clean sheets | 35% |
| 56% | Failed to score | 32% |
League matches only, 34 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Colegiales | 35 | +4 | 51 | DWDWW |
| 8 | Deportivo Maipu | 34 | +7 | 48 | LDWWD |
| 9 | San Martin S.J. | 34 | +2 | 47 | DDLLW |
| 10 | San Martín (Tucumán) | 35 | +2 | 46 | LWLWD |
| 11 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 35 | -6 | 46 | DWLLL |
| 12 | Quilmes | 35 | +2 | 42 | WLLDW |
| 13 | Almagro | 35 | -10 | 42 | DLWWL |
| 14 | Agropecuario | 34 | -11 | 40 | LWDLW |
| 15 | Patronato | 34 | -4 | 37 | LWLWD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Quilmes won 1, San Martín (Tucumán) 2, 3 draws; 1.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jun 2026 | San Martín (Tucumán) | 0–0 | Quilmes | Primera Nacional |
| 28 Sep 2025 | San Martín (Tucumán) | 1–1 | Quilmes | Primera Nacional |
| 26 May 2025 | Quilmes | 1–2 | San Martín (Tucumán) | Primera Nacional |
| 22 Jul 2024 | Quilmes | 1–2 | San Martín (Tucumán) | Primera Nacional |
| 5 Mar 2024 | San Martín (Tucumán) | 0–0 | Quilmes | Primera Nacional |
| 27 Apr 2022 | Quilmes | 2–0 | San Martín (Tucumán) | Copa Argentina |
Match context
- Rest days
- Quilmes 7San Martín (Tucumán) 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Quilmes 1 · San Martín (Tucumán) 2
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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