Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Morón prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
A draw is the most likely result: 35%, about 1 in 3
Goals call2 goals or fewer 73% · bookies 73%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The Coach sees two low-scoring sides cancelling out at 0.9 expected goals each, while the Dressing Room reads Morón's higher league position against a soft home run. The Sceptic notes Morón's four defeats in six but keeps probabilities near the published 33-36-32 split. All three settle on a tight game leaning to the draw and Under 2.5 goals.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Almirante Brown's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Almirante Brown favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides score under a goal a game here, so goals look scarce
Almirante Brown score 0.82 per game and concede 0.71 with 53% clean sheets, while Morón manage 1.18 per game away. Morón do carry more attacking threat at 53% both-teams-scored, but their 29% clean-sheet rate and Almirante's 41% failed-to-score rate point to a tight, low-scoring afternoon.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMorón's position counts for little against their poor run
Morón sit 3rd on 58 points, ten clear of Almirante Brown in 7th on 48, yet they arrive with four defeats in six. The hosts have only one loss in their last six and equal rest at 7 days, with one game in 14 for each.
Deportivo Morón: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongNumbers look fair, maybe a shade light on the home side
The published split sits well against the head-to-head: Morón lead 3-1 in the last six, winning both 2026 and 2025 meetings, which supports their 32%.
Almirante Brown: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
No clear favourite: a draw is the single most likely result at 35%. Almirante Brown are 7th and Deportivo Morón 3rd in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Almirante Brown won none and Deportivo Morón one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Almirante Brown win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 64%
- Deportivo Morón win or draw
- 67%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 53%
- 3+ goals
- 26%
- 4+ goals
- 10%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 35%
- No
- 65%
We expect about 0.9 goals from Almirante Brown and 0.9 from Deportivo Morón. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–0 (17%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 1–0 (15%), 0–1 (15%), 1–1 (13%), 2–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% | 29% | 27% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1174 | |
| 2 | 37% | 35% | 28% | Prices moved | #1335 | |
| 3 | 33% | 36% | 32% | Prices moved | #1392 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Almirante Brown: last 6
DDLLLD · 5 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Colon Santa Fe | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs San Miguel | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Oct | at San Telmo | 2–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Acassuso | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Chaco For Ever | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Ferro Carril Oeste | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: DLDWW
Deportivo Morón: last 6
LLWLLW · 6 scored, 10 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Atletico Mitre | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at CA Estudiantes | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs All Boys | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Los Andes | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Godoy Cruz | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Racing Cordoba | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LLWWD
Season stats
| Almirante Brown | Deportivo Morón | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.82 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 0.71 | Goals conceded per game | 1.06 |
| 0.94 | Scored per game at home | 1.82 |
| 0.71 | Scored per game away | 1.18 |
| 21% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| 29% | Both teams scored | 53% |
| 53% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 41% | Failed to score | 24% |
League matches only, 34 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 35 | +7 | 65 | LWDLW |
| 2 | Godoy Cruz | 34 | +16 | 60 | WDWDW |
| 3 | Deportivo Morón | 34 | +15 | 58 | LLWLL |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 35 | +20 | 57 | WDLWD |
| 5 | Colon Santa Fe | 35 | +16 | 57 | WDDWD |
| 6 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 35 | -1 | 51 | LWWWW |
| 7 | Almirante Brown | 34 | +4 | 48 | DDLLL |
| 8 | CA Estudiantes | 34 | +1 | 48 | LWLWW |
| 9 | Chaco For Ever | 35 | +0 | 43 | WLWDL |
| 10 | Los Andes | 34 | +1 | 41 | DLLWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Almirante Brown won 1, Deportivo Morón 3, 2 draws; 1.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jun 2026 | Deportivo Morón | 1–0 | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| 14 Jun 2025 | Deportivo Morón | 2–0 | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| 9 Feb 2025 | Almirante Brown | 1–1 | Deportivo Morón | Primera Nacional |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Deportivo Morón | 0–1 | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| 6 Apr 2024 | Almirante Brown | 1–1 | Deportivo Morón | Primera Nacional |
| 27 Aug 2023 | Almirante Brown | 0–1 | Deportivo Morón | Primera Nacional |
Match context
- Travel for Deportivo Morón
- 6 km
- Rest days
- Almirante Brown 7Deportivo Morón 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Almirante Brown 1 · Deportivo Morón 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 17°C · wind 12 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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