Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Ferro Carril Oeste to win: 66%, about 2 in 3
Goals call2 goals or fewer 64% · bookies 64% · ✗ 3 goals
The Verdict
All three readings land close to the published 66/23/11, with Ferro Carril Oeste firm favourites on table position, home record and defensive numbers. The one soft spot is the total: the sceptic notes head-to-head games have averaged 3.0 goals, so the 36% over line may be a shade conservative, though the coach's low-scoring read keeps that in check.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Ferro Carril Oeste's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersFerro's defence should keep this tight and low-scoring.
Ferro concede just 0.82 per game with 47% clean sheets, while Chaco For Ever score only 0.65 away. Ferro's home games have produced just 3 goals scored and 2 conceded across the last five. Both teams score in only 32% of the published scenarios, so under the total line looks the likelier shape.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTop of the table at home against a mid-table side - Ferro should control this.
Ferro have lost once in six, winning three of their last five at home. Both sides had two games in 14 days, so neither holds a freshness edge.
Ferro Carril Oeste: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home price looks fair, but the low total may be slightly overdone.
Head-to-head games average 3.0 goals, including a 4-2 and a 2-1, yet the published 3+ rate is just 36%. Chaco For Ever have scored in four of their last six and won the last meeting 1-2 at home to Ferro's 2-1. I'd nudge the over up a touch while keeping the 1X2 close to published.
Ferro Carril Oeste: slightly overrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Ferro Carril Oeste are clear favourites at 66%, with Chaco For Ever on 11% and the draw on 23%. Ferro Carril Oeste are 1st and Chaco For Ever 10th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Ferro Carril Oeste won three and Chaco For Ever two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Ferro Carril Oeste win or draw
- 89%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Chaco For Ever win or draw
- 34%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 63%
- 3+ goals
- 36%
- 4+ goals
- 17%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 32%
- No
- 68%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Ferro Carril Oeste and 0.5 from Chaco For Ever. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (19%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 5. Next: 2–0 (16%), 0–0 (12%), 1–1 (10%), 3–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 66% | 23% | 11% | Stats preview | #788 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Ferro Carril Oeste: last 6
WDLWWD · 4 scored, 3 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Racing Cordoba | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Central Norte | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Oct | vs Deportivo Madryn | 0–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Defensores De Belgrano | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Ciudad de Bolívar | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Almirante Brown | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: WLWDW
Chaco For Ever: last 6
LWDLWD · 7 scored, 7 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Central Norte | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Deportivo Madryn | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Defensores De Belgrano | 2–2 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Ciudad de Bolívar | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Almirante Brown | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Atletico Mitre | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: WLDDL
Season stats
| Ferro Carril Oeste | Chaco For Ever | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.12 | Goals scored per game | 0.97 |
| 0.82 | Goals conceded per game | 1.06 |
| 1.06 | Scored per game at home | 1.29 |
| 1.18 | Scored per game away | 0.65 |
| 32% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 35% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 44% |
| 47% | Clean sheets | 35% |
| 26% | Failed to score | 32% |
League matches only, 34 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 35 | +7 | 65 | LWDLW |
| 2 | Godoy Cruz | 34 | +16 | 60 | WDWDW |
| 3 | Deportivo Moron | 34 | +15 | 58 | LLWLL |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 35 | +20 | 57 | WDLWD |
| … | |||||
| 6 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 35 | -1 | 51 | LWWWW |
| 7 | Almirante Brown | 34 | +4 | 48 | DDLLL |
| 8 | CA Estudiantes | 34 | +1 | 48 | LWLWW |
| 9 | Chaco For Ever | 35 | +0 | 43 | WLWDL |
| 10 | Los Andes | 34 | +1 | 41 | DLLWL |
| 11 | Racing Cordoba | 34 | -10 | 40 | LWDDL |
| 12 | Atletico Mitre | 34 | -8 | 39 | WDWLL |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Ferro Carril Oeste won 2, Chaco For Ever 1, 1 draw; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jun 2026 | Chaco For Ever | 1–2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | Primera Nacional |
| 27 Aug 2023 | Chaco For Ever | 4–2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | Primera Nacional |
| 16 Apr 2023 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 2–1 | Chaco For Ever | Primera Nacional |
| 27 Jun 2022 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 0–0 | Chaco For Ever | Primera Nacional |
Match context
- Rest days
- Ferro Carril Oeste 6Chaco For Ever 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Ferro Carril Oeste 2 · Chaco For Ever 2
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
