Almagro vs Tristán Suárez prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Tristán Suárez to win: 56%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 72% · bookies 72% · ✓ 2 goals
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Almagro's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Almagro favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTristan Suarez's defensive record should strangle this into a low-scoring away win
Almagro's home form reads W L D L D with 5 scored and 6 conceded. Both teams score only 29% of the time here, so a tight away win fits.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTop of the table against mid-table, and the gap should tell
The leaders have drawn four of their last six away, so a draw is live, but the table gap points away.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away price looks right, but the low total may be undersold
Tristan Suarez have won 3 of the last 6 head-to-heads and drew this fixture 0-0 in 2026, yet their away run is D W D D L with just 2 goals scored. Almagro's last six include three defeats and a 1-3 at Temperley.
Almagro: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Tristán Suárez are favourites at 56%, with Almagro on 14% and the draw on 30%. Almagro are 12th and Tristán Suárez 1st in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Almagro won two and Tristán Suárez two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Almagro win or draw
- 44%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Tristán Suárez win or draw
- 86%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 55%
- 3+ goals
- 28%
- 4+ goals
- 11%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 29%
- No
- 71%
We expect about 0.5 goals from Almagro and 1.3 from Tristán Suárez. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (21%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 5. Next: 0–0 (16%), 0–2 (14%), 1–1 (11%), 1–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14% | 30% | 56% | Stats preview | #771 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Almagro: last 6
LWWLLD · 8 scored, 10 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Club Atlético Güemes | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Chacarita Juniors | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Oct | at San Martin S.J. | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Nueva Chicago | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Temperley | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Deportivo Maipu | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: WLDLD
Tristán Suárez: last 6
WDDWDD · 2 scored, 0 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Patronato | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Colegiales | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Quilmes | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Sep | at Midland | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Sep | vs Atlanta | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Sep | at San Martin S.J. | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: DWDDL
Season stats
| Almagro | Tristán Suárez | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.91 | Goals scored per game | 0.97 |
| 1.21 | Goals conceded per game | 0.44 |
| 1.06 | Scored per game at home | 1.12 |
| 0.76 | Scored per game away | 0.82 |
| 35% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 24% |
| 44% | Both teams scored | 26% |
| 26% | Clean sheets | 71% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 34 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristán Suárez | 35 | +18 | 63 | DWDDW |
| 2 | Temperley | 34 | +13 | 60 | DWWLW |
| 3 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 34 | +9 | 58 | WDLDD |
| 4 | Atlanta | 34 | +7 | 58 | LWWWD |
| … | |||||
| 10 | San Martin Tucuman | 35 | +2 | 46 | LWLWD |
| 11 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 35 | -6 | 46 | DWLLL |
| 12 | Quilmes | 35 | +2 | 42 | WLLDW |
| 13 | Almagro | 35 | -10 | 42 | DLWWL |
| 14 | Agropecuario | 34 | -11 | 40 | LWDLW |
| 15 | Patronato | 34 | -4 | 37 | LWLWD |
| 16 | Chacarita Juniors | 34 | -9 | 36 | WLWLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Almagro won 1, Tristán Suárez 3, 2 draws; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jun 2026 | Tristán Suárez | 0–0 | Almagro | Primera Nacional |
| 21 Jun 2025 | Almagro | 0–1 | Tristán Suárez | Primera Nacional |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Tristán Suárez | 2–1 | Almagro | Primera Nacional |
| 11 Mar 2022 | Almagro | 1–0 | Tristán Suárez | Primera Nacional |
| 23 Jul 2021 | Tristán Suárez | 1–1 | Almagro | Primera Nacional |
| 16 Mar 2021 | Almagro | 1–3 | Tristán Suárez | Primera Nacional |
Match context
- Rest days
- Almagro 5Tristán Suárez 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Almagro 1 · Tristán Suárez 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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