Patronato vs Agropecuario prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Patronato to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 64% · bookies 64%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: a home win around 50% with the draw next, matching the published numbers. The sceptic's nudge on goals is the only divergence, and with both sides' low scoring rates, under 2.5 looks the likelier course in a low-stakes mid-table meeting.
What our AI analysts say
All three think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo low-scoring sides point to a tight, home-tilted game under the line.
Patronato concede 0.97 a game with 38% clean sheets, while Agropecuario fail to score 47% of the time and manage just 0.59 away.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table stakes and Patronato's home strength favour the hosts.
Patronato sit 15th on 37 points, Agropecuario 13th on 40, so little separates them in the table. Both had a full week's rest.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 50% home number looks fair, but the over may be slightly generous.
The model's 28% over 2.5 sits above both season rates of 24% and 29% only marginally, yet Patronato have failed to score in 50% of matches and Agropecuario in 47%. Head-to-head averages 2.4 goals, but recent meetings were low-scoring apart from the 4-0. I shade the over down.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Patronato are favourites at 55%, with Agropecuario on 18% and the draw on 27%. Patronato are 15th and Agropecuario 14th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Patronato won two and Agropecuario two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Patronato win or draw
- 82%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Agropecuario win or draw
- 45%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 63%
- 3+ goals
- 36%
- 4+ goals
- 17%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 38%
- No
- 62%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Patronato and 0.7 from Agropecuario. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (17%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (12%), 0–0 (12%), 2–1 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% | 30% | 20% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1185 | |
| 2 | 55% | 27% | 18% | Prices moved | #1336 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Patronato: last 6
LWLWDD · 6 scored, 3 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Tristan Suarez | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Club Atlético Güemes | 2–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | at Chacarita Juniors | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs San Martin S.J. | 3–0 | W |
| 21 Sep | at Nueva Chicago | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Temperley | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWDLW
Agropecuario: last 6
LWDLWL · 2 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Colegiales | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Quilmes | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Midland | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Sep | at Atlanta | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Gimnasia Y Tiro | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | at San Martin Tucuman | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WLLDL
Season stats
| Patronato | Agropecuario | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.85 | Goals scored per game | 0.79 |
| 0.97 | Goals conceded per game | 1.12 |
| 1.29 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.41 | Scored per game away | 0.59 |
| 24% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 29% |
| 32% | Both teams scored | 32% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 47% |
League matches only, 34 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 35 | -6 | 46 | DWLLL |
| 12 | Quilmes | 35 | +2 | 42 | WLLDW |
| 13 | Almagro | 35 | -10 | 42 | DLWWL |
| 14 | Agropecuario | 34 | -11 | 40 | LWDLW |
| 15 | Patronato | 34 | -4 | 37 | LWLWD |
| 16 | Chacarita Juniors | 34 | -9 | 36 | WLWLW |
| 17 | Nueva Chicago | 34 | -9 | 36 | LLLWD |
| 18 | Club Atlético Güemes | 34 | -32 | 26 | WLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Patronato won 1, Agropecuario 2, 2 draws; 2.4 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jun 2026 | Agropecuario | 1–1 | Patronato | Primera Nacional |
| 23 Jun 2024 | Patronato | 4–0 | Agropecuario | Primera Nacional |
| 2 Feb 2024 | Agropecuario | 1–0 | Patronato | Primera Nacional |
| 16 Oct 2023 | Patronato | 1–1 | Agropecuario | Primera Nacional |
| 3 Jun 2023 | Agropecuario | 2–1 | Patronato | Primera Nacional |
Match context
- Rest days
- Patronato 7Agropecuario 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Patronato 1 · Agropecuario 1
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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