Nueva Chicago vs San Martín (San Juan) prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Nueva Chicago 36%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 69% · bookies 69%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three converge on a tight match: probabilities cluster near 36-33-32, close to the published numbers. Nueva Chicago's scoring problems and San Martín's cautious away form push every analyst below the 31% over line, so goals look the shakiest published number here.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think San Martín (San Juan)'s chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo blunt attacks point to a tight, low-scoring contest.
With 29% and 32% clean-sheet rates, one goal may settle it.
Nueva Chicago: slightly overrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureA five-point gap and wildly different runs shape this one.
San Martín sit 9th on 47 points; Nueva Chicago are 17th on 36, with a five-point gap and six defeats in their last six. Both had seven days' rest, but the hosts' L L D W L home run offers little comfort.
San Martín (San Juan): slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published numbers look about right, if anything the over is generous.
The H2H averages just 1.5 goals with two 0-0s in 2023 and 1-0s since. San Martín drew 1-1, 1-1 then lost 0-3; over 2.5 at 31% looks fair, maybe generous. The three-way split near 36-33-32 seems right.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Nueva Chicago are slight favourites at 36%, with San Martín (San Juan) on 32% and the draw on 32%. Nueva Chicago are 17th and San Martín (San Juan) 9th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Nueva Chicago won one and San Martín (San Juan) one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Nueva Chicago win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 67%
- San Martín (San Juan) win or draw
- 64%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 57%
- 3+ goals
- 30%
- 4+ goals
- 13%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 38%
- No
- 62%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Nueva Chicago and 0.9 from San Martín (San Juan). (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (15%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 0–0 (15%), 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (13%), 2–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% | 33% | 32% | Stats preview | #1468 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Nueva Chicago: last 6
LLLWDL · 3 scored, 6 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Gimnasia Jujuy | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Temperley | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Oct | vs Deportivo Maipu | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Almagro | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Sep | vs Patronato | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Colegiales | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: LLDWL
San Martín (San Juan): last 6
DDLLWD · 5 scored, 7 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Temperley | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Deportivo Maipu | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Oct | vs Almagro | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Patronato | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Colegiales | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Tristan Suarez | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: DLLWD
Season stats
| Nueva Chicago | San Martín (San Juan) | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.71 | Goals scored per game | 1.06 |
| 0.97 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 0.94 | Scored per game at home | 1.29 |
| 0.47 | Scored per game away | 0.82 |
| 24% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 35% |
| 29% | Both teams scored | 56% |
| 32% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 53% | Failed to score | 24% |
League matches only, 34 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Midland | 34 | +11 | 51 | LWDLW |
| 7 | Colegiales | 35 | +4 | 51 | DWDWW |
| 8 | Deportivo Maipu | 34 | +7 | 48 | LDWWD |
| 9 | San Martín (San Juan) | 34 | +2 | 47 | DDLLW |
| 10 | San Martin Tucuman | 35 | +2 | 46 | LWLWD |
| 11 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 35 | -6 | 46 | DWLLL |
| 12 | Quilmes | 35 | +2 | 42 | WLLDW |
| … | |||||
| 14 | Agropecuario | 34 | -11 | 40 | LWDLW |
| 15 | Patronato | 34 | -4 | 37 | LWLWD |
| 16 | Chacarita Juniors | 34 | -9 | 36 | WLWLW |
| 17 | Nueva Chicago | 34 | -9 | 36 | LLLWD |
| 18 | Club Atlético Güemes | 34 | -32 | 26 | WLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Nueva Chicago won 1, San Martín (San Juan) 3, 2 draws; 1.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2026 | San Martín (San Juan) | 1–0 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| 1 Dec 2024 | San Martín (San Juan) | 1–0 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Nueva Chicago | 2–1 | San Martín (San Juan) | Primera Nacional |
| 16 Aug 2023 | Nueva Chicago | 0–0 | San Martín (San Juan) | Primera Nacional |
| 6 Apr 2023 | San Martín (San Juan) | 0–0 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| 21 May 2022 | San Martín (San Juan) | 3–1 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
Match context
- Travel for San Martín (San Juan)
- 1,004 km
- Rest days
- Nueva Chicago 7San Martín (San Juan) 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Nueva Chicago 1 · San Martín (San Juan) 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 6 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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