Deportivo Maipú vs Güemes prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Deportivo Maipú to win: 80%, about 4 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 50% · bookies 50%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The sceptic's head-to-head note is the only counterweight, but Güemes' scoreless recent run and weak away record outweigh it. On goals, 55% over 2.5 sits right on the edge, with total-goals data split between 78% for 2+ and 41% both teams scoring.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think a draw is underrated. The Sceptic thinks Güemes are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersMaipú's defensive control should shut down a blunt away attack
Maipú concede 0.97 per game and Güemes score only 0.65 away, so clean-sheet chances look strong. Güemes' over 2.5 rate is just 41%, and the 55% over line sits high against a home side averaging 1.18 scored.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe table gap and home form point firmly to the hosts
Güemes are 18th on 26 points, and their away form reads L L L D D with one scored and seven conceded.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPublished numbers look fair, but the head-to-head record raises a flag
The head-to-head flatters Güemes: three wins and three draws in six, with Maipú winning none, including a 4-0 in 2024. But Güemes lost five of their last six without scoring a goal, so 9% away looks about right, if not generous.
Güemes: clearly underrated
Med Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Deportivo Maipú are clear favourites at 80%, with Güemes on 6% and the draw on 14%. Deportivo Maipú are 8th and Güemes 18th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Deportivo Maipú won two and Güemes one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Deportivo Maipú win or draw
- 94%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 86%
- Güemes win or draw
- 20%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 30%
- No
- 70%
We expect about 2.3 goals from Deportivo Maipú and 0.4 from Güemes. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (18%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 1–0 (16%), 3–0 (13%), 4–0 (8%), 2–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 75% | 17% | 9% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1204 | |
| 2 | 80% | 14% | 6% | Prices moved | #1339 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Deportivo Maipú: last 6
LDWWDD · 6 scored, 5 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Chacarita Juniors | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs San Martin S.J. | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Oct | at Nueva Chicago | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Temperley | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Gimnasia Jujuy | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Almagro | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: DWDDW
Güemes: last 6
WLLLLL · 2 scored, 10 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Almagro | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Patronato | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Colegiales | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Sep | at Quilmes | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Midland | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Atlanta | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLDD
Season stats
| Deportivo Maipú | Güemes | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.18 | Goals scored per game | 0.74 |
| 0.97 | Goals conceded per game | 1.68 |
| 1.18 | Scored per game at home | 0.82 |
| 1.18 | Scored per game away | 0.65 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 41% |
| 44% | Both teams scored | 53% |
| 32% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 35% | Failed to score | 41% |
League matches only, 34 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 34 | +6 | 52 | WDLWL |
| 6 | Midland | 34 | +11 | 51 | LWDLW |
| 7 | Colegiales | 35 | +4 | 51 | DWDWW |
| 8 | Deportivo Maipú | 34 | +7 | 48 | LDWWD |
| 9 | San Martin S.J. | 34 | +2 | 47 | DDLLW |
| 10 | San Martin Tucuman | 35 | +2 | 46 | LWLWD |
| 11 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 35 | -6 | 46 | DWLLL |
| … | |||||
| 15 | Patronato | 34 | -4 | 37 | LWLWD |
| 16 | Chacarita Juniors | 34 | -9 | 36 | WLWLW |
| 17 | Nueva Chicago | 34 | -9 | 36 | LLLWD |
| 18 | Güemes | 34 | -32 | 26 | WLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Deportivo Maipú won 0, Güemes 3, 3 draws; 2.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jun 2026 | Güemes | 1–0 | Deportivo Maipú | Primera Nacional |
| 27 Jul 2025 | Deportivo Maipú | 1–1 | Güemes | Primera Nacional |
| 23 Mar 2025 | Güemes | 1–1 | Deportivo Maipú | Primera Nacional |
| 7 Sep 2024 | Güemes | 4–0 | Deportivo Maipú | Primera Nacional |
| 22 Apr 2024 | Deportivo Maipú | 1–1 | Güemes | Primera Nacional |
| 3 Jul 2022 | Güemes | 2–1 | Deportivo Maipú | Primera Nacional |
Match context
- Travel for Güemes
- 1,171 km
- Rest days
- Deportivo Maipú 8Güemes 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Deportivo Maipú 1 · Güemes 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 16 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primera Nacional average: 1.96 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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