Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Deportivo Madryn to win: 69%, about 2 in 3
Goals call2 goals or fewer 57% · bookies 57% · ✗ 5 goals
The Verdict
All three readings land on a home win: the style data favours Madryn's home scoring against a side that fails to score half the time, the table and rest point the same way, and only the head-to-head tempers it slightly. On goals, the sceptic's low-scoring meetings and San Telmo's 35% over rate nudge the over below the published 43%.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersMadryn's home scoring against San Telmo's blunt attack points one way.
Madryn score 1.65 per game at home and concede just 0.88; San Telmo manage only 0.65 away and fail to score in 50% of matches. Both teams score in just 32% of San Telmo's games, so a one-sided scoreline looks likelier than a shootout.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFourth hosting fourteenth, with the home side fresher and stronger.
Madryn sit 4th on 54 points from 34 games; San Telmo are 14th on 38. The visitors' away run reads L W W L W.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHead-to-head history argues the home price is a touch too strong.
San Telmo have won 2 of the last 5 meetings with 1.4 goals per game, including a 0-0 earlier in 2026, and arrive with three away wins in five. Madryn's last six show two defeats and two 0-0 draws, so 69% for the hosts looks slightly generous to them.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Deportivo Madryn are clear favourites at 69%, with San Telmo on 10% and the draw on 21%. Deportivo Madryn are 4th and San Telmo 14th in Primera Nacional. In their last five league games, Deportivo Madryn won two and San Telmo two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Deportivo Madryn win or draw
- 90%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- San Telmo win or draw
- 31%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 69%
- 3+ goals
- 43%
- 4+ goals
- 22%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 35%
- No
- 65%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Deportivo Madryn and 0.5 from San Telmo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (17%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 2–0 (16%), 3–0 (10%), 0–0 (9%), 1–1 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 69% | 21% | 10% | Stats preview | #811 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Deportivo Madryn: last 6
DLWDWL · 6 scored, 4 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Acassuso | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Chaco For Ever | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Oct | at Ferro Carril Oeste | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Central Norte | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Racing Cordoba | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Sep | at Defensores De Belgrano | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: LDWWW
San Telmo: last 6
DLWWLW · 6 scored, 4 conceded
| 19 Oct | vs Defensores De Belgrano | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Ciudad de Bolívar | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Almirante Brown | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Atletico Mitre | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs CA Estudiantes | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | at All Boys | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LWWLW
Season stats
| Deportivo Madryn | San Telmo | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.38 | Goals scored per game | 0.82 |
| 0.88 | Goals conceded per game | 1.09 |
| 1.65 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.12 | Scored per game away | 0.65 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 35% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 32% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 34 games each.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 35 | +7 | 65 | LWDLW |
| 2 | Godoy Cruz | 34 | +16 | 60 | WDWDW |
| 3 | Deportivo Moron | 34 | +15 | 58 | LLWLL |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 35 | +20 | 57 | WDLWD |
| 5 | Colon Santa Fe | 35 | +16 | 57 | WDDWD |
| 6 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 35 | -1 | 51 | LWWWW |
| 7 | Almirante Brown | 34 | +4 | 48 | DDLLL |
| … | |||||
| 11 | Racing Cordoba | 34 | -10 | 40 | LWDDL |
| 12 | Atletico Mitre | 34 | -8 | 39 | WDWLL |
| 13 | Defensores De Belgrano | 34 | -7 | 38 | DLDLW |
| 14 | San Telmo | 35 | -12 | 38 | LDLWW |
| 15 | Central Norte | 34 | -8 | 37 | WDDDL |
| 16 | All Boys | 34 | -10 | 35 | DDLDD |
| 17 | Acassuso | 34 | -10 | 33 | DWLWW |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Deportivo Madryn won 1, San Telmo 2, 2 draws; 1.4 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jun 2026 | San Telmo | 0–0 | Deportivo Madryn | Primera Nacional |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Deportivo Madryn | 1–0 | San Telmo | Primera Nacional |
| 28 Apr 2024 | San Telmo | 2–1 | Deportivo Madryn | Primera Nacional |
| 6 May 2022 | San Telmo | 2–1 | Deportivo Madryn | Primera Nacional |
| 5 Feb 2021 | San Telmo | 0–0 | Deportivo Madryn | Primera B Metropolitana |
Match context
- Rest days
- Deportivo Madryn 7San Telmo 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Deportivo Madryn 2 · San Telmo 2
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
