Necaxa vs FC Juarez prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Necaxa to win: 56%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 58% · bookies 58% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
All three readings lean Necaxa, and the published 56/23/21 split holds up: Juarez's away collapse and Necaxa's home scoring history point the same way. The sceptic's only real doubt is the 58% over line, given Juarez's blunt attack, yet Necaxa's leaky defence keeps goals likely.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersNecaxa's home scoring pattern and Juarez's leaky defence point to a home win with goals.
Necaxa score 1.14 per game at home and both teams have scored in 77% of their matches, while Juarez concede 2.46 per game with only 8% clean sheets. Juarez manage just 0.50 goals per game away, so their threat is limited.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo struggling sides, but Juarez's crisis is on another level entirely.
Necaxa sit 17th with 9 points from 13 games; Juarez are 18th with just 4 points and one win all season. Necaxa have lost five straight at home, yet Juarez have lost five straight away, conceding 19 in those. Both had 3 games in 14 days and 3 days' rest, so fatigue is even.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe prices look fair on Necaxa, but the over 2.5 line may be a touch generous.
But the 58% over line leans on Necaxa's 62% over rate; Juarez sit at 54%, have failed to score in 46% of matches and managed just 0.62 goals per game, so I make the over closer to a coin flip.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Necaxa are favourites at 56%, with FC Juarez on 21% and the draw on 23%. Necaxa are 17th and FC Juarez 18th in Liga MX. In their last five league games, Necaxa won none and FC Juarez one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Necaxa win or draw
- 79%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- FC Juarez win or draw
- 44%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 35%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Necaxa and 1.1 from FC Juarez. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (9%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% | 23% | 21% | Stats preview | #643 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Necaxa: last 6
LLDLLL · 6 scored, 14 conceded
| 21 Oct | at Guadalajara Chivas | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Atlas | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at CF Pachuca | 3–3 | D |
| 28 Sep | vs Club America | 2–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Atletico San Luis | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Puebla | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: LLLLL
FC Juarez: last 6
LLDLWL · 5 scored, 11 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs Atlante FC | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Cruz Azul | 0–5 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Club Tijuana | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Sep | at Leon | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Tigres UANL | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Sep | at Santos Laguna | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLL
Season stats
| Necaxa | FC Juarez | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.15 | Goals scored per game | 0.62 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 2.46 |
| 1.14 | Scored per game at home | 0.71 |
| 1.17 | Scored per game away | 0.50 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| 77% | Both teams scored | 46% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 23% | Failed to score | 46% |
League matches only, 13 games each.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | -4 | 15 | DLDWW |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | -6 | 14 | LWLLW |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | +2 | 13 | LLDLD |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | -11 | 10 | DLLDL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | -24 | 5 | DLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Necaxa won 2, FC Juarez 0, 4 draws; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2026 | FC Juarez | 1–2 | Necaxa | Liga MX |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Necaxa | 1–1 | FC Juarez | Liga MX |
| 16 Apr 2025 | FC Juarez | 2–2 | Necaxa | Liga MX |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Necaxa | 3–0 | FC Juarez | Liga MX |
| 4 Feb 2024 | FC Juarez | 2–2 | Necaxa | Liga MX |
| 16 Sep 2023 | Necaxa | 1–1 | FC Juarez | Liga MX |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 181Javier Orantes
Defenders
- 33R. Martínez
- 5Kaiky Naves
- 3A. Oliveros
- 88C. Vargas
Midfielders
- 210Joshua Alejandro Palacios Pulido
- 13Owen de Jesús González Ojeda
- 8L. Faravelli
- 21M. Espíndola
- 10J. Ruiz
Forward
- 9J. Carranza
Substitutes (10)
- 14M. Zaleta
- 6D. Leyva
- 208Leonardo Abimael Becerra Ramos
- 1C. Andrade
- 2E. Martínez
- 20F. Méndez
- 16P. Pedraza
- 27M. Pedroza
- 99M. Rodríguez
- 188Israel Tello Robles
Goalkeeper
- 1S. Jurado
Defenders
- 33F. Nevárez
- 3J. Murillo
- 2G. Sepúlveda
- 26D. Piña
Midfielders
- 183L. Silva
- 13Rodrigo Dourado
- 9Madson
- 8Guilherme Castilho
- 11J. Rodríguez
Forward
- 19Ó. Estupiñán
Substitutes (10)
- 23H. Ortega
- 21Ricardinho
- 250B. Molina
- 4A. Mayorga
- 17L. Martínez Dupuy
- 14E. López
- 5D. García
- 201J. Carmona
- 27Guillermo Ruiz
- 16J. Sigala
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Necaxa 3FC Juarez 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Necaxa 3 · FC Juarez 3
- Referee
- Martin Molina Astorga
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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