Atlas vs Club America prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Club America to win: 48%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 56% · ✓ 7 goals
In short
Club America are favourites at 48%, with Atlas on 27% and the draw on 25%. Atlas are 5th and Club America 1st in Liga MX. In their last five league games, Atlas won two and Club America two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Atlas win or draw
- 52%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Club America win or draw
- 73%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 56%
- 4+ goals
- 34%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Atlas and 1.7 from Club America. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 0–2 (8%), 2–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% | 25% | 48% | Stats preview | #436 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Atlas: last 6
WDWDLD · 10 scored, 10 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Necaxa | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Guadalajara Chivas | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Club Tijuana | 3–2 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Toluca | 2–5 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Atlante FC | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: DDDLW
Club America: last 6
WDWDLW · 17 scored, 12 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Leon | 5–3 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Monterrey | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Sep | at Necaxa | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Guadalajara Chivas | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Cruz Azul | 3–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs Puebla | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WWLWD
Season stats
| Atlas | Club America | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.58 | Goals scored per game | 2.45 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.27 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.20 |
| 2.17 | Scored per game away | 2.67 |
| 42% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 64% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 12 and 11 games.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | +16 | 27 | WWDWD |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | +9 | 26 | WWDDL |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | +10 | 23 | DDDLD |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | +7 | 23 | WWDDL |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | +3 | 22 | DWLDW |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | -2 | 21 | LWDWD |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | +5 | 20 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | +1 | 20 | LLWWD |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWWWW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Atlas won 1, Club America 5, 0 draws; 3.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | Club America | 0–1 | Atlas | Liga MX |
| 25 Aug 2025 | Atlas | 2–4 | Club America | Liga MX |
| 16 Mar 2025 | Atlas | 1–3 | Club America | Liga MX |
| 18 Sep 2024 | Club America | 3–0 | Atlas | Liga MX |
| 10 Aug 2024 | Club America | 2–1 | Atlas | Leagues Cup |
| 3 Mar 2024 | Atlas | 1–5 | Club America | Liga MX |
Match context
- Rest days
- Atlas 5Club America 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Atlas 2 · Club America 2
- Referee
- Cesar Arturo Ramos
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
