Tigres UANL vs Leon prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Tigres UANL to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 51% · bookies 51% · ✗ 2 goals
In short
Tigres UANL are favourites at 46%, with Leon on 27% and the draw on 27%. Tigres UANL are 14th and Leon 7th in Liga MX. In their last five league games, Tigres UANL won two and Leon two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Tigres UANL win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Leon win or draw
- 54%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 51%
- 4+ goals
- 29%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Tigres UANL and 1.2 from Leon. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 0–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Tigres UANL: last 6
DWWLDD · 6 scored, 6 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Guadalajara Chivas | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Toluca | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Puebla | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at FC Juarez | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Monterrey | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Necaxa | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWDWD
Leon: last 6
LDWDWL · 10 scored, 11 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Club America | 3–5 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Puebla | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Sep | vs FC Juarez | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Sep | at Club Queretaro | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Atletico San Luis | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | at U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: DDLDW
Season stats
| Tigres UANL | Leon | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.17 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 1.42 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 0.71 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 42% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| 58% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 8% |
League matches only, 12 games each.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | +9 | 26 | WWDDL |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | +10 | 23 | DDDLD |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | +7 | 23 | WWDDL |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | +3 | 22 | DWLDW |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | -2 | 21 | LWDWD |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | +5 | 20 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | +1 | 20 | LLWWD |
| … | |||||
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | +1 | 17 | DDDLD |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | -3 | 17 | DLWDL |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | -4 | 16 | LDDLD |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | -4 | 15 | DLDWW |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | -6 | 14 | LWLLW |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | +2 | 13 | LLDLD |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | -11 | 10 | DLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Tigres UANL won 3, Leon 1, 2 draws; 2.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | Leon | 1–2 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Tigres UANL | 0–0 | Leon | Liga MX |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Leon | 1–0 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Tigres UANL | 2–2 | Leon | Liga MX |
| 18 Jan 2024 | Leon | 1–2 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 16 Jul 2023 | Tigres UANL | 1–0 | Leon | Liga MX |
Match context
- Rest days
- Tigres UANL 3Leon 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Tigres UANL 2 · Leon 2
- Referee
- Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
