Toluca vs Club Tijuana prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Toluca to win: 75%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 71% · bookies 71% · ✓ 4 goals
In short
Toluca are clear favourites at 75%, with Club Tijuana on 10% and the draw on 15%. Toluca are 3rd and Club Tijuana 10th in Liga MX. In their last five league games, Toluca won one and Club Tijuana none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Toluca win or draw
- 90%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 85%
- Club Tijuana win or draw
- 25%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 88%
- 3+ goals
- 71%
- 4+ goals
- 50%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 2.7 goals from Toluca and 0.9 from Club Tijuana. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 3–0 (9%), 3–1 (8%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Toluca: last 6
DLDLWW · 14 scored, 12 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Atletico San Luis | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Tigres UANL | 2–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | at Cruz Azul | 3–3 | D |
| 21 Sep | vs Santos Laguna | 2–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | at Puebla | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Atlas | 5–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: DLWWW
Club Tijuana: last 6
DDLDLW · 7 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Puebla | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | at FC Juarez | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Atlas | 2–3 | L |
| 21 Sep | at CF Pachuca | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Club Queretaro | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DDLLL
Season stats
| Toluca | Club Tijuana | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.17 | Goals scored per game | 1.36 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 1.27 |
| 2.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.43 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 27% |
League matches only, 12 and 11 games.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | +16 | 27 | WWDWD |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | +9 | 26 | WWDDL |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | +10 | 23 | DDDLD |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | +7 | 23 | WWDDL |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | +3 | 22 | DWLDW |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | -2 | 21 | LWDWD |
| … | |||||
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | +1 | 20 | LLWWD |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWWWW |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | -3 | 19 | WWDLW |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | +1 | 17 | DDDLD |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | -3 | 17 | DLWDL |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | -4 | 16 | LDDLD |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | -4 | 15 | DLDWW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Toluca won 4, Club Tijuana 1, 1 draw; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Toluca | 1–0 | Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| 23 Oct 2025 | Club Tijuana | 0–0 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| 11 Jan 2025 | Club Tijuana | 2–4 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Toluca | 4–0 | Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| 25 Feb 2024 | Toluca | 2–0 | Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| 16 Sep 2023 | Club Tijuana | 2–1 | Toluca | Liga MX |
Match context
- Rest days
- Toluca 4Club Tijuana 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Toluca 2 · Club Tijuana 2
- Referee
- Julio Gerardo Garcia Armenta
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
