Monterrey vs Pachuca prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Monterrey to win: 59%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 59% · bookies 59% · ✓ 3 goals
In short
Monterrey are favourites at 59%, with Pachuca on 18% and the draw on 23%. Monterrey are 12th and Pachuca 14th in Liga MX. In their last five league games, Monterrey won one and Pachuca two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Monterrey win or draw
- 82%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Pachuca win or draw
- 41%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 59%
- 4+ goals
- 37%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Monterrey and 1.1 from Pachuca. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 3–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% | 23% | 20% | Stats preview | #77 | |
| 2 | 57% | 23% | 20% | Updated news and prices | #229 | |
| 3 | 59% | 23% | 18% | Official lineups | #242 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Monterrey: last 6
DLWDLW · 7 scored, 9 conceded
| 11 Oct | at Club America | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Atlante FC | 2–4 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Cruz Azul | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Tigres UANL | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Aug | vs Atletico San Luis | 1–3 | L |
| 26 Aug | vs Chicago Fire Leagues Cup | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WDLWW
Pachuca: last 6
DLDWWD · 11 scored, 7 conceded
| 11 Oct | vs Necaxa | 3–3 | D |
| 27 Sep | at Santos Laguna | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Sep | vs Club Tijuana | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Atlante FC | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | at FC Juarez | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Guadalajara Chivas | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LWWDW
Season stats
| Monterrey | Pachuca | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.70 | Goals scored per game | 1.64 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.27 |
| 2.20 | Scored per game at home | 1.80 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 18% |
League matches only, 10 and 11 games.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | +7 | 23 | WWDDL |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | +3 | 22 | DWLDW |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | -2 | 21 | LWDWD |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | +5 | 20 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | +1 | 20 | LLWWD |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWWWW |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | -3 | 19 | WWDLW |
| … | |||||
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | -4 | 16 | LDDLD |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | -4 | 15 | DLDWW |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | -6 | 14 | LWLLW |
| 16 | Pachuca | 13 | +2 | 13 | LLDLD |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | -11 | 10 | DLLDL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | -24 | 5 | DLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Monterrey won 2, Pachuca 4, 0 draws; 3.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2026 | Monterrey | 1–3 | Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 13 Jul 2025 | Pachuca | 3–0 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 28 Apr 2025 | Monterrey | 1–2 | Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 26 Jan 2025 | Monterrey | 2–3 | Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 8 Jul 2024 | Pachuca | 0–1 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 11 Feb 2024 | Monterrey | 3–2 | Pachuca | Liga MX |
Match context
- Travel for Pachuca
- 637 km
- Rest days
- Monterrey 7Pachuca 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Monterrey 1 · Pachuca 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 18°C · wind 5 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Cesar Arturo Ramos
- Goals in this league
- Liga MX average: 3.00 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
