Puebla vs Monterrey prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Monterrey to win: 52%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 53% · bookies 53% · ✓ 5 goals
In short
Monterrey are favourites at 52%, with Puebla on 23% and the draw on 25%. Puebla are 12th and Monterrey 8th in Liga MX. In their last five league games, Puebla won none and Monterrey two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Puebla win or draw
- 48%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Monterrey win or draw
- 77%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Puebla and 1.7 from Monterrey. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (9%), 1–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23% | 25% | 52% | Stats preview | #434 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Puebla: last 6
DDLDLW · 3 scored, 4 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Club Tijuana | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Leon | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | at Tigres UANL | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Atlante FC | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Sep | vs Toluca | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Necaxa | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DDLWD
Monterrey: last 6
WDLWDL · 7 scored, 9 conceded
| 19 Oct | vs CF Pachuca | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Club America | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Atlante FC | 2–4 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Cruz Azul | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Tigres UANL | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Aug | vs Atletico San Luis | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: DLLWW
Season stats
| Puebla | Monterrey | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.73 |
| 1.08 | Goals conceded per game | 1.45 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game at home | 2.17 |
| 0.86 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 25% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 64% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 18% |
League matches only, 12 and 11 games.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | +7 | 23 | WWDDL |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | +3 | 22 | DWLDW |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | -2 | 21 | LWDWD |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | +5 | 20 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | +1 | 20 | LLWWD |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWWWW |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | -3 | 19 | WWDLW |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | +1 | 17 | DDDLD |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | -3 | 17 | DLWDL |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | -4 | 16 | LDDLD |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | -4 | 15 | DLDWW |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | -6 | 14 | LWLLW |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | +2 | 13 | LLDLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Puebla won 0, Monterrey 4, 2 draws; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | Monterrey | 2–1 | Puebla | Liga MX |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Puebla | 2–4 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 13 Jan 2025 | Monterrey | 1–1 | Puebla | Liga MX |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Puebla | 1–2 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 14 Jan 2024 | Monterrey | 2–0 | Puebla | Liga MX |
| 4 Oct 2023 | Puebla | 1–1 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
Match context
- Rest days
- Puebla 4Monterrey 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Puebla 2 · Monterrey 2
- Referee
- Ismael Rosario Lopez Penuelas
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
