Pachuca vs Cruz Azul prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Cruz Azul to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 59% · bookies 59% · ✓ 3 goals
In short
Cruz Azul are slight favourites at 42%, with Pachuca on 32% and the draw on 26%. Pachuca are 16th and Cruz Azul 6th in Liga MX. In their last five league games, Pachuca won one and Cruz Azul two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Pachuca win or draw
- 57%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Cruz Azul win or draw
- 68%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Pachuca and 1.6 from Cruz Azul. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 2–1 (8%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% | 26% | 43% | Stats preview | #439 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Pachuca: last 6
LDLDWW · 11 scored, 8 conceded
| 19 Oct | at Monterrey | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Necaxa | 3–3 | D |
| 27 Sep | at Santos Laguna | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Sep | vs Club Tijuana | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Atlante FC | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | at FC Juarez | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DDDLL
Cruz Azul: last 6
WDDLLW · 15 scored, 12 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs FC Juarez | 5–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | at U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3–3 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Toluca | 3–3 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Monterrey | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Sep | at Inter Miami Campeones Cup | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Club America | 4–3 | W |
Last 5 away: DLLWL
Season stats
| Pachuca | Cruz Azul | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.58 | Goals scored per game | 2.25 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 1.75 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 2.43 |
| 1.43 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 58% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 58% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 17% |
League matches only, 12 games each.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | +16 | 27 | WWDWD |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | +9 | 26 | WWDDL |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | +10 | 23 | DDDLD |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | +7 | 23 | WWDDL |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | +3 | 22 | DWLDW |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | -2 | 21 | LWDWD |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | +5 | 20 | LWWDL |
| … | |||||
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | -4 | 16 | LDDLD |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | -4 | 15 | DLDWW |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | -6 | 14 | LWLLW |
| 16 | Pachuca | 13 | +2 | 13 | LLDLD |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | -11 | 10 | DLLDL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | -24 | 5 | DLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Pachuca won 3, Cruz Azul 3, 0 draws; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | Cruz Azul | 1–2 | Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Pachuca | 0–1 | Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| 9 Feb 2025 | Cruz Azul | 2–1 | Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Pachuca | 2–4 | Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| 14 Jan 2024 | Cruz Azul | 0–1 | Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 24 Aug 2023 | Pachuca | 1–0 | Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
Match context
- Rest days
- Pachuca 3Cruz Azul 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Pachuca 2 · Cruz Azul 2
- Referee
- Daniel Quintero Huitron
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
