Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Monterrey 38%)
The Verdict
Our numbers moved slightly away from the bookmakers by adjusting the draw probability by one point. The Sceptic's view that the draw was slightly underrated was partially followed in our final assessment.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsChivas' superior league standing and form gives them the edge in this match.
Chivas has several important unnamed absences for the trip to Monterrey. Omar Govea is returning to the squad after missing three games. Monterrey is currently 7th in the table, fighting for a Final Series spot.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureChivas' superior league standing and form give them the advantage in this clash.
Chivas is 2nd in the table with 23 points, while Monterrey is 7th with 20 points.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMonterrey's home advantage and Chivas' absences suggest a tight contest.
Chivas has several important unnamed absences for the trip to Monterrey. The league averages 2.98 goals per match this season.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Guadalajara Chivas enters this match as the superior side in terms of league position and recent form. However, Monterrey is highly motivated to secure a spot in the Final Series at home. The match features a unique personal element with Monterrey's coach facing his former club.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Monterrey win or draw
- 69%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 69%
- Guadalajara Chivas win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 59%
- 3+ goals
- 32%
- 4+ goals
- 14%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 40%
- No
- 60%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Monterrey and 0.9 from Guadalajara Chivas. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (13%), 2–0 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 38% | 30% | 32% | 55% |
| AI analysts | 33% | 29% | 39% | 67% |
| Our forecast | 38% | 31% | 31% | – |
Verdict: Our final probabilities remain close to the market, reflecting the statistical strength of Chivas while acknowledging the home advantage and the high-scoring nature of the league.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% | 30% | 32% | Stats preview | #837 | |
| 2 | 38% | 31% | 31% | Full analysis | #1227 | |
| 3 | 38% | 31% | 31% | Updated news and prices | #1266 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Monterrey: last 6
WWDLWD · 10 scored, 7 conceded
| 22 Oct | at Puebla | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Oct | vs CF Pachuca | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Club America | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Atlante FC | 2–4 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Cruz Azul | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Tigres UANL | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWDLW
Guadalajara Chivas: last 6
WDDLDW · 8 scored, 6 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs Necaxa | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Tigres UANL | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Atlas | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Club Queretaro | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Club America | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Sep | vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DDWDW
Season stats
| Monterrey | Guadalajara Chivas | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.92 | Goals scored per game | 1.54 |
| 1.42 | Goals conceded per game | 0.92 |
| 2.17 | Scored per game at home | 1.57 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 58% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 31% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 46% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 15% |
League matches only, 12 and 13 games.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | +16 | 27 | WWDWD |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | +9 | 26 | WWDDL |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | +10 | 23 | DDDLD |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | +7 | 23 | WWDDL |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | +3 | 22 | DWLDW |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | -2 | 21 | LWDWD |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | +5 | 20 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | +1 | 20 | LLWWD |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWWWW |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | -3 | 19 | WWDLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Monterrey won 2, Guadalajara Chivas 3, 1 draw; 3.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | Monterrey | 2–3 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 8 Nov 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas | 4–2 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 6 Apr 2025 | Monterrey | 3–1 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Guadalajara Chivas | 1–1 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 31 Mar 2024 | Monterrey | 0–2 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 3 Sep 2023 | Guadalajara Chivas | 1–2 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1E. Andrada
Defenders
- 2R. Chávez
- 5F. Ambríz
- 4V. Guzmán
- 3G. Arteaga
Midfielders
- 18Cesar Garza Cantu
- 7L. Ocampos
- 25O. Pineda
- 17J. Corona
Forwards
- 9D. Rossi
- 99H. Cuypers
Substitutes (10)
- 8Óliver Torres
- 13C. Salcedo
- 244Paxon Levi Ruffin Tamez
- 30J. Rodríguez
- 10L. Orellano
- 33S. Medina
- 22L. Cárdenas
- 14É. Aguirre
- 19A. Aceves
- 27R. de la Rosa
Goalkeeper
- 1J. Rangel
Defenders
- 23D. Aguirre
- 16L. Rey
- 3D. Campillo
Midfielders
- 37R. Ledezma
- 28R. González
- 6O. Govea
- 5B. González
- 25R. Alvarado
- 30Santiago Sandoval
Forward
- 17R. Marín
Substitutes (10)
- 33J. Carrillo
- 14H. Camberos
- 182L. Calderon
- 19K. Castañeda
- 56Á. Chávez
- 57J. Hernández
- 46C. Hernandez
- 59C. Inda
- 13Óscar Whalley
- 10E. Álvarez
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
| Player | Team | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Govea | Guadalajara Chivas | Returning | [2] |
Key facts
- Guadalajara Chivas is currently in second place with 23 points from 13 games.[1]
- Monterrey sits in seventh place with 20 points after 12 matches.[1]
- Chivas has a strong away record, having won two and drawn four matches on the road.[1]
- Monterrey's home record this season includes four wins, one draw, and one loss.[1]
- Both teams are competing for a spot in the top eight for the Final Series.[1]
Sources
Match context
- Rest days
- Monterrey 3Guadalajara Chivas 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Monterrey 3 · Guadalajara Chivas 2
- Referee
- Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez
- Goals in this league
- Liga MX average: 2.97 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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