U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Tigres UANL 37%)
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers': Silva's rescinded red card gives Pumas a small availability edge, but neither side's form justifies a bigger move. The Dressing Room's heavier weighting of Pumas' off-field turmoil was not followed, because those items are not clearly quantifiable enough to shift probabilities beyond the small home tilt we already apply.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsSilva's return tips an otherwise full-strength, even matchup slightly Pumas' way.
Pumas get Nathan Silva back after his red card vs Santos Laguna was rescinded on appeal. Neither side lists injuries or suspensions, so both are close to full strength. No predicted lineups are available for this Jornada 14 meeting.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureTwo slumping, chaotic mid-table sides - edgy Pumas at home get the narrow nod.
Pumas sit 13th on 16 pts, Tigres 14th on 14 pts, both chasing a Liguilla spot. Pumas have one win in five and lost 2-0 at Santos, with Solari's future questioned and dressing-room friction. Tigres lost 0-2 at home to León last time out.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongSilva's return tips a tight mid-table clash slightly toward Pumas at home.
The league averages 2.98 goals per match this season.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Two struggling mid-table sides meet with Liguilla places at stake. Pumas sit 12th on 16 points, Tigres 14th on 14, and both arrive off home defeats. Nathan Silva is available again for Pumas after his red card was rescinded on appeal.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas win or draw
- 63%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Tigres UANL win or draw
- 64%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 45%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.2 goals from U.N.A.M. - Pumas and 1.3 from Tigres UANL. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (10%), 0–0 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 35% | 27% | 37% | 53% |
| AI analysts | 39% | 27% | 34% | 53% |
| Our forecast | 36% | 27% | 37% | – |
Verdict: Our probabilities stay nearly level with the market because the only concrete team-news item is Silva's reinstatement, which offsets Pumas' poor home record and Tigres' winless away record without clearly favouring either side.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% | 27% | 37% | Stats preview | #845 | |
| 2 | 36% | 27% | 37% | Full analysis | #1234 | |
| 3 | 36% | 27% | 37% | Updated news and prices | #1277 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas: last 6
LWDLDL · 8 scored, 13 conceded
| 22 Oct | at Santos Laguna | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Atlante FC | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs Cruz Azul | 3–3 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Atletico San Luis | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Atlas | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sep | at Guadalajara Chivas | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: DLWDD
Tigres UANL: last 6
LDWWLD · 5 scored, 7 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs Leon | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Guadalajara Chivas | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Toluca | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Puebla | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at FC Juarez | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Monterrey | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: DLDDL
Season stats
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Tigres UANL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | Goals scored per game | 1.08 |
| 1.69 | Goals conceded per game | 1.38 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.43 | Scored per game away | 0.71 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 54% |
| 8% | Clean sheets | 31% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 31% |
League matches only, 13 games each.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWWWW |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | -3 | 19 | WWDLW |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | +1 | 17 | DDDLD |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | -3 | 17 | DLWDL |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | -4 | 16 | LDDLD |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | -4 | 15 | DLDWW |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | -6 | 14 | LWLLW |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | +2 | 13 | LLDLD |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | -11 | 10 | DLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 1, Tigres UANL 2, 3 draws; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | Tigres UANL | 0–1 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| 21 Sep 2025 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 1–1 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 20 Apr 2025 | Tigres UANL | 2–1 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| 1 Sep 2024 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 1–3 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 4 Feb 2024 | Tigres UANL | 2–2 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| 11 Dec 2023 | Tigres UANL | 1–1 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1K. Navas
Defenders
- 7R. López
- 6Nathan Silva
- 5Rubén Duarte
- 2P. Bennevendo
Midfielders
- 21U. Antuna
- 45P. Vite
- 8A. Carrasquilla
- 10C. Huerta
Forwards
- 31R. Morales
- 23Juninho
Substitutes (10)
- 77Á. Angulo
- 18V. Arteaga
- 34Á. Azuaje
- 14L. Herrera
- 35P. Lara
- 24T. Leone
- 15I. Luna
- 30Santiago López López
- 22A. Medina
- 19J. Rivas
Goalkeeper
- 1N. Guzmán
Defenders
- 14J. Garza
- 15A. Franco
- 33R. Guerrero
- 19M. Laínez
Midfielders
- 8F. Gorriarán
- 5C. Araújo
- 16D. Lainez
- 11J. Brunetta
- 30D. Sánchez
Forward
- 17R. Aguirre
Substitutes (10)
- 192E. J. Villavicencio Avila
- 6J. Vigón
- 25F. Rodríguez
- 21R. Monreal
- 22G. Martínez
- 32V. Loroña
- 77O. Herrera
- 9E. Gómez
- 29J. Contreras
- 184I. Aceves
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
| Player | Team | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Silva | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Returning | [2] |
Key facts
- Pumas are 12th with 16 points from 13 games, one place and two points above Tigres, who are 14th on 14 points.[1]
- Pumas have won only once at home in the league this season (W1 D3 L2), with most of their points earned on the road.[1]
- Tigres are winless away in the league this season (W0 D3 L4), though they have lost only once at home.[1]
- Pumas lost their most recent match 0-2 at Santos Laguna on 22 October.[1]
- Nathan Silva is available for Pumas after his red card against Santos Laguna was rescinded on appeal.[2]
Sources
Match context
- Rest days
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3Tigres UANL 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3 · Tigres UANL 2
- Referee
- Jorge Abraham Camacho Peregrina
- Goals in this league
- Liga MX average: 2.97 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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