Atlas vs Puebla prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Atlas to win: 57%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The consensus points towards a high-scoring encounter, with Atlas being the slight favourite despite recent form concerns. The market reflects the attacking potential of the home side, while the defensive instability of Atlas remains a key factor to monitor.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersAtlas's high scoring rate (1.62/game) is undermined by a defensive record that concedes 1.77 goals per game.
Atlas averages 1.14 goals at home but has conceded 11 goals in their last 5 home fixtures. Puebla averages 1.00 goal per game overall.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureAtlas, sitting in 6th place with 21 points, faces a challenging run of form that could impact their performance.
Atlas has recorded 21 goals and conceded 23 in 13 games. They have suffered 4 losses and 3 draws in their recent run.
Atlas: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market appears to accurately reflect the high-scoring nature of this fixture, given the historical data.
Head-to-head matches have averaged 4.2 goals per game. Atlas has scored 6 goals in 5 home games, while Puebla has failed to score in 3 of their last 6 fixtures.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
Takes 1–3 minutes: we search the news and read the sources. Keep this page open, it reloads when the analysis is ready. It is saved for everyone who opens this match.
Full analysis in progress
Starting…
Usually 1–3 minutes. Keep this page open.
The full analysis is ready. Loading it…
The full analysis could not be completed. Please try again later.
Too many requests right now. Please try again in a few minutes.
In short
Atlas are favourites at 57%, with Puebla on 19% and the draw on 24%. Atlas are 6th and Puebla 13th in Liga MX. In their last five league games, Atlas won two and Puebla none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Atlas win or draw
- 81%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Puebla win or draw
- 43%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Atlas and 1.0 from Puebla. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 3–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% | 24% | 19% | Stats preview | #1347 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Atlas: last 6
LWDWDL · 11 scored, 14 conceded
| 22 Oct | vs Club America | 2–5 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Necaxa | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Guadalajara Chivas | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Club Tijuana | 3–2 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Toluca | 2–5 | L |
Last 5 at home: LDDDL
Puebla: last 6
LDDLDL · 3 scored, 8 conceded
| 22 Oct | vs Monterrey | 1–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Club Tijuana | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Leon | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | at Tigres UANL | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Atlante FC | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Sep | vs Toluca | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: DLWLW
Season stats
| Atlas | Puebla | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.62 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.77 | Goals conceded per game | 1.31 |
| 1.14 | Scored per game at home | 1.17 |
| 2.17 | Scored per game away | 0.86 |
| 46% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 31% |
| 69% | Both teams scored | 54% |
| 23% | Clean sheets | 23% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 31% |
League matches only, 13 games each.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | +10 | 23 | DDDLD |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | +7 | 23 | WWDDL |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | +3 | 22 | DWLDW |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | -2 | 21 | LWDWD |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | +5 | 20 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | +1 | 20 | LLWWD |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWWWW |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | -3 | 19 | WWDLW |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | +1 | 17 | DDDLD |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | -3 | 17 | DLWDL |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | -4 | 16 | LDDLD |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | -4 | 15 | DLDWW |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | -6 | 14 | LWLLW |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | +2 | 13 | LLDLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Atlas won 4, Puebla 1, 1 draw; 4.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2026 | Atlas | 3–4 | Puebla | Friendlies Clubs |
| 10 Jan 2026 | Atlas | 1–0 | Puebla | Liga MX |
| 12 Jul 2025 | Puebla | 2–3 | Atlas | Liga MX |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Atlas | 3–2 | Puebla | Liga MX |
| 20 Jul 2024 | Puebla | 1–2 | Atlas | Liga MX |
| 9 Mar 2024 | Puebla | 2–2 | Atlas | Liga MX |
Match context
- Travel for Puebla
- 567 km
- Rest days
- Atlas 3Puebla 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Atlas 2 · Puebla 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 25°C · wind 13 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Liga MX average: 2.95 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
