Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Guadalajara Chivas to win: 71%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 70% · bookies 70% · ✗ 1 goals
In short
Guadalajara Chivas are clear favourites at 71%, with Necaxa on 13% and the draw on 16%. Guadalajara Chivas are 4th and Necaxa 17th in Liga MX. In their last five league games, Guadalajara Chivas won one and Necaxa none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Guadalajara Chivas win or draw
- 88%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 84%
- Necaxa win or draw
- 29%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 88%
- 3+ goals
- 70%
- 4+ goals
- 49%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 59%
- No
- 41%
We expect about 2.6 goals from Guadalajara Chivas and 1.0 from Necaxa. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–0 (9%), 3–1 (8%), 3–0 (8%), 1–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Guadalajara Chivas: last 6
DDLDWW · 10 scored, 6 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Tigres UANL | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Atlas | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Club Queretaro | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Club America | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Sep | vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Atletico San Luis | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DLWWL
Necaxa: last 6
LDLLLD · 7 scored, 14 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Atlas | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at CF Pachuca | 3–3 | D |
| 28 Sep | vs Club America | 2–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Atletico San Luis | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Puebla | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | at Tigres UANL | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: DLDDW
Season stats
| Guadalajara Chivas | Necaxa | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.58 | Goals scored per game | 1.25 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 2.08 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.14 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.40 |
| 33% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 83% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 17% |
League matches only, 12 games each.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | +16 | 27 | WWDWD |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | +9 | 26 | WWDDL |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | +10 | 23 | DDDLD |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | +7 | 23 | WWDDL |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | +3 | 22 | DWLDW |
| … | |||||
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | -4 | 15 | DLDWW |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | -6 | 14 | LWLLW |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | +2 | 13 | LLDLD |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | -11 | 10 | DLLDL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | -24 | 5 | DLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Guadalajara Chivas won 3, Necaxa 2, 1 draw; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr 2026 | Necaxa | 0–0 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 24 Sep 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3–1 | Necaxa | Liga MX |
| 18 Jan 2025 | Necaxa | 3–2 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 23 Oct 2024 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3–2 | Necaxa | Liga MX |
| 21 Feb 2024 | Necaxa | 1–0 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 14 Jul 2023 | Guadalajara Chivas | 2–0 | Necaxa | Liga MX |
Match context
- Rest days
- Guadalajara Chivas 3Necaxa 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Guadalajara Chivas 2 · Necaxa 2
- Referee
- Vicente Jassiel Reynoso Arce
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
