Llanera vs Ponferradina prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Ponferradina to win: 58%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 61%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three readings converge on Ponferradina as the likely winner, supported by their superior expected goals (2.0 vs 1.1) and the market's 58% probability. While Llanera has struggled at home, their recent defensive vulnerability suggests they may struggle to contain the away side.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersPonferradina's higher expected goals (2.0) suggests they have the edge in this encounter.
Both teams have a 58% chance of scoring in the match.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides have managed their fixture load similarly, but recent results differ.
Both teams have had 2 games in the last 14 days and 3 days of rest. Llanera has suffered two consecutive losses in all competitions.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market heavily favours Ponferradina, despite Llanera's home defensive struggles.
Llanera's last home match saw them concede 3 goals while scoring only 1. Ponferradina's last away game was a 1-1 draw.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Ponferradina are favourites at 58%, with Llanera on 20% and the draw on 22%. Neither side has won any of their last two matches across all competitions. The prices point to about 3.1 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Llanera win or draw
- 42%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Ponferradina win or draw
- 80%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 61%
- 4+ goals
- 39%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Llanera and 2.0 from Ponferradina. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–2 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (10%), 0–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 1–3 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20% | 22% | 58% | Stats preview | #1603 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Llanera: last 2
LL · 2 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Compostela Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Arosa Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 | 1–4 | L |
Last 1 at home: L
Ponferradina: last 2
DD · 1 scored, 1 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Barakaldo Primera División RFEF - Group 1 | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Zamora Primera División RFEF - Group 1 | 1–1 | D |
Last 1 away: D
Match context
- Rest days
- Llanera 3Ponferradina 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Llanera 2 · Ponferradina 2
- Goals in this league
- Copa del Rey average: 3.30 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
