Ciudad de Lucena vs Rayo Majadahonda prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Rayo Majadahonda to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 50% · bookies 50%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three cards land near the published numbers: Majadahonda favoured on the division gap, with the Coach's scoring rates nudging the total up and the Sceptic wary of their poor away sample.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo sides scoring freely point to goals in this cup tie.
Lucena come in off 2-2 at Estepona, Majadahonda off a 2-1 win over Sant Andreu. The numbers show 2+ goals 75% and both teams score 54%, with expected goals of 1.1 and 1.5. Both scored in each side's last match, so an open cup night reads well.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureEqual rest, one division apart: Majadahonda carry the extra quality.
Both teams have had 3 days since their last game and 2 games in 14 days, so no freshness edge for either. Majadahonda operate a division higher in Primera RFEF Group 2, and that step up in level is the main asymmetry, even with Lucena unbeaten in their last two.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away lean looks fair, but Majadahonda's away record is thin.
The prices make Majadahonda 46% favourites, yet their only away sample is a 0-1 defeat at Real Jaén with no goal scored. Lucena's 1-0 win at Xerez shows they can grind results. I'd shave the away side slightly and nudge the draw up from 26%.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Rayo Majadahonda are favourites at 46%, with Ciudad de Lucena on 28% and the draw on 26%. In their last two matches across all competitions, Ciudad de Lucena won one and Rayo Majadahonda one. The prices point to about 2.7 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Ciudad de Lucena win or draw
- 54%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Rayo Majadahonda win or draw
- 72%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Ciudad de Lucena and 1.5 from Rayo Majadahonda. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 0–2 (8%), 1–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% | 26% | 46% | Stats preview | #1602 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Ciudad de Lucena: last 2
DW · 3 scored, 2 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Estepona Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Xerez Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 | 1–0 | W |
Rayo Majadahonda: last 2
WL · 2 scored, 2 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Sant Andreu Primera División RFEF - Group 2 | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Real Jaén Primera División RFEF - Group 2 | 0–1 | L |
Last 1 away: L
Match context
- Rest days
- Ciudad de Lucena 3Rayo Majadahonda 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Ciudad de Lucena 2 · Rayo Majadahonda 2
- Goals in this league
- Copa del Rey average: 3.30 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
