Castellonense vs Almería prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Almería to win: 68%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 56%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
Castellonense's home tie and fresh legs offer a slim upset path, but the visitors' momentum dominates.
What our AI analysts say
Both analysts broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureAlmería's winning run and superior level make an upset unlikely.
Almería arrive on a six-match unbeaten run in all competitions, five of them wins, while Castellonense play two tiers below in the RFEF. The visitors have just 2 days' rest after two games in 14, but momentum and squad depth at this level gap should tell.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 68% away price looks fair, but the total line may be slightly high.
Almería's away record is W W W L L with 7 scored and 4 conceded - strong but not flawless, and two late defeats show vulnerability. Castellonense just won 2-0 at Intercity, so a clean away win isn't guaranteed. The 56% over 2.5 line feels a touch generous given cup ties can be tight.
Almería: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Almería are clear favourites at 68%, with Castellonense on 13% and the draw on 19%. In their last match across all competitions, Castellonense won one and Almería none. The prices point to about 2.9 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Castellonense win or draw
- 32%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 82%
- Almería win or draw
- 87%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 56%
- 4+ goals
- 34%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 49%
- No
- 51%
We expect about 0.8 goals from Castellonense and 2.1 from Almería. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–2 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 0–3 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13% | 18% | 68% | Stats preview | #1594 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Castellonense: last 1
W · 2 scored, 0 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Intercity Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 | 2–0 | W |
Almería: last 6
DWWWWW · 14 scored, 5 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Oviedo Segunda División | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Real Sociedad II Segunda División | 4–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Leganes Segunda División | 3–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Burgos Segunda División | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Mallorca Segunda División | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Celta de Vigo II Segunda División | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WWWLL
Match context
- Rest days
- Castellonense 3Almería 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Castellonense 1 · Almería 2
- Goals in this league
- Copa del Rey average: 3.30 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
