Arosa vs Pontevedra prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Pontevedra to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three cards land close to the published numbers. The Coach and Dressing Room back Pontevedra's 55% on their higher-division pedigree, two wins, and balanced rest; the Sceptic nudges the hosts up slightly on the 2026 head-to-head win and Arosa's strong home form. Goals lean over, but not emphatically.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Arosa's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Arosa favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersPontevedra's away threat against Arosa's leaky defence points to goals.
Arosa conceded in their last match and Pontevedra won their most recent away game 2-1, scoring twice on the road. The expected goals line backs that up: Arosa 1.0, Pontevedra 1.8. Both sides finding the net looks a live prospect.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureRest days are level, but the divisional gap favours Pontevedra.
Pontevedra sit a division higher and arrive on two straight wins, while Arosa lost their most recent outing, which shapes how much pressure the hosts can absorb.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongArosa's home win over Pontevedra earlier in 2026 questions the 55%.
The market makes Pontevedra 55% yet the head-to-head says otherwise: Arosa won 3-1 this year, and the three meetings split 1-1-1 with 2.3 goals per game. Arosa also won their only home game 4-1. That form argues Pontevedra are priced a touch high.
Arosa: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Pontevedra are favourites at 55%, with Arosa on 21% and the draw on 24%. In their last two matches across all competitions, Arosa won one and Pontevedra two. The prices point to about 2.8 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Arosa win or draw
- 45%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Pontevedra win or draw
- 79%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Arosa and 1.8 from Pontevedra. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (10%), 1–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% | 24% | 55% | Stats preview | #1623 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Arosa: last 2
LW · 4 scored, 2 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Sestao River Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Llanera Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 | 4–1 | W |
Last 1 at home: W
Pontevedra: last 2
WW · 3 scored, 1 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Cultural Leonesa Primera División RFEF - Group 1 | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Cacereño Primera División RFEF - Group 1 | 1–0 | W |
Last 1 away: W
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Arosa won 1, Pontevedra 1, 1 draw; 2.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | Arosa | 3–1 | Pontevedra | Friendlies Clubs |
| 17 Apr 2022 | Arosa | 1–1 | Pontevedra | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| 28 Nov 2021 | Pontevedra | 1–0 | Arosa | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
Match context
- Rest days
- Arosa 3Pontevedra 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Arosa 2 · Pontevedra 2
- Goals in this league
- Copa del Rey average: 3.30 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
