Namungo vs Polisi Tanzania prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Namungo to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 55%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three cards land within a few points of the published numbers: a 44-27-29 read with Namungo slightly ahead, leaning under 2.5. The Coach's home defence, the Dressing Room's even table and the Sceptic's form check all point the same way: a close, low-to-moderate scoring match at Ruangwa.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersNamungo's home solidity gives them the edge in a low-scoring match
Polisi score 1.40 per game away but have kept clean sheets in just 33% of matches, and Namungo fail to score in only 22% of theirs. With the competition averaging 2.49 goals per match, under 2.5 appeals slightly.
Polisi Tanzania: slightly overrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table neighbours, and Namungo's home run could tip a tight affair
These sides sit 7th and 6th on 12 points each from 9 games, so mid-table pride rather than pressure is at stake. Namungo's 4 straight home wins carry weight, though their all-round run shows 4 defeats in the last 6.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPublished numbers look fair, but the away goal rate deserves respect
The model gives Namungo 44% yet Polisi have failed to score in 0% of league games and both teams scored in 67% of theirs, versus Namungo's 44%. Polisi also scored 1.25 per game away.
Namungo: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Namungo are slight favourites at 44%, with Polisi Tanzania on 29% and the draw on 27%. Namungo are 7th and Polisi Tanzania 6th in the Tanzanian Premier League. In their last five league games, Namungo won two and Polisi Tanzania one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Namungo win or draw
- 71%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Polisi Tanzania win or draw
- 56%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 45%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Namungo and 1.1 from Polisi Tanzania. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% | 27% | 29% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1723 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Namungo: last 6
WWLLLL · 6 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Coastal Union | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Oct | vs Tabora United | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Dodoma Jiji | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sep | at Azam | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Sep | at Singida Black Stars | 2–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | at JKT Tanzania | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWWWL
Polisi Tanzania: last 6
DDLWLL · 8 scored, 10 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Pamba Jiji | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Kagera Sugar | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Oct | at Mashujaa | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Mbeya City | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Coastal Union | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | at Singida Black Stars | 2–4 | L |
Last 4 away: DLLW
Season stats
| Namungo | Polisi Tanzania | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.33 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 1.22 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game at home | 1.40 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 44% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 22% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Tanzanian Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Azam | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWWD |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 9 | +0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji | 8 | +3 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 9 | +1 | 12 | DDLWL |
| 7 | Namungo | 9 | -3 | 12 | WWLLL |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 8 | -4 | 12 | LWWLW |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDLWW |
| 10 | Mbeya City | 8 | -1 | 10 | LLLDW |
Match context
- Rest days
- Namungo 4Polisi Tanzania 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Namungo 1 · Polisi Tanzania 2
- Goals in this league
- Tanzanian Premier League average: 2.49 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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