Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Young Africans to win: 79%, about 4 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 63%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
In short
Young Africans are clear favourites at 79%, with Kagera Sugar on 7% and the draw on 14%. Young Africans are 2nd and Kagera Sugar 15th in the Tanzanian Premier League. In their last five league games, Young Africans won three and Kagera Sugar one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Young Africans win or draw
- 93%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 86%
- Kagera Sugar win or draw
- 21%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 63%
- 4+ goals
- 41%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 44%
- No
- 56%
We expect about 2.6 goals from Young Africans and 0.7 from Kagera Sugar. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 3–0 (11%), 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (8%), 4–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 79% | 14% | 7% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2047 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Young Africans: last 6
DWWLWW · 12 scored, 3 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Tabora United | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Oct | vs CFFA CAF Champions League | 4–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at CFFA CAF Champions League | 4–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Simba | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | vs Geita Gold | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | at Fountain Gate | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
Kagera Sugar: last 6
LDWDLL · 6 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | at JKT Tanzania | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Polisi Tanzania | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Mbeya City | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Fountain Gate | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | vs Azam | 0–2 | L |
| 27 Aug | at Mashujaa | 1–2 | L |
Last 4 away: LWLL
Season stats
| Young Africans | Kagera Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.12 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 0.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.89 |
| 2.75 | Scored per game at home | 0.60 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 62% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 8 and 9 games.
Tanzanian Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 8 | +15 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Young Africans | 8 | +13 | 19 | DLWWW |
| 3 | Azam | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWWD |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 9 | +0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji | 8 | +3 | 14 | WDWWW |
| … | |||||
| 12 | Tabora United | 8 | -1 | 7 | DLWDL |
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | -6 | 7 | LLLLD |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 9 | -5 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 9 | -8 | 6 | LDWDL |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLDLL |
Match context
- Travel for Kagera Sugar
- 1,027 km
- Rest days
- Young Africans 8Kagera Sugar 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Young Africans 2 · Kagera Sugar 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 26°C · wind 12 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Tanzanian Premier League average: 2.49 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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