Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Polisi Tanzania to win: 56%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 55%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
In short
Polisi Tanzania are favourites at 56%, with Geita Gold on 21% and the draw on 23%. Polisi Tanzania are 6th and Geita Gold 13th in the Tanzanian Premier League. In their last five league games, Polisi Tanzania won one and Geita Gold none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Polisi Tanzania win or draw
- 78%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Geita Gold win or draw
- 44%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Polisi Tanzania and 1.1 from Geita Gold. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% | 23% | 22% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2087 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Polisi Tanzania: last 6
DDLWLL · 8 scored, 10 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Pamba Jiji | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Kagera Sugar | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Oct | at Mashujaa | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Mbeya City | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Coastal Union | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | at Singida Black Stars | 2–4 | L |
Last 5 at home: DWLWD
Geita Gold: last 6
LLLLDW · 8 scored, 14 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Dodoma Jiji | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Oct | at Pamba Jiji | 0–4 | L |
| 15 Sep | at Young Africans | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | at Simba | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs Azam | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Kagera Sugar | 6–2 | W |
Last 5 away: LLLLW
Season stats
| Polisi Tanzania | Geita Gold | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Goals scored per game | 1.12 |
| 1.22 | Goals conceded per game | 1.88 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 2.67 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game away | 0.20 |
| 33% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 25% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 62% |
League matches only, 9 and 8 games.
Tanzanian Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Azam | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWWD |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 9 | +0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji | 8 | +3 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 9 | +1 | 12 | DDLWL |
| 7 | Namungo | 9 | -3 | 12 | WWLLL |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 8 | -4 | 12 | LWWLW |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDLWW |
| 10 | Mbeya City | 8 | -1 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 9 | -5 | 10 | LWLWW |
| 12 | Tabora United | 8 | -1 | 7 | DLWDL |
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | -6 | 7 | LLLLD |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 9 | -5 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 9 | -8 | 6 | LDWDL |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLDLL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Polisi Tanzania 9Geita Gold 15
- Matches in the last 14 days: Polisi Tanzania 1 · Geita Gold 0
- Goals in this league
- Tanzanian Premier League average: 2.49 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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