Coastal Union vs Dodoma Jiji prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Coastal Union 36%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 69%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three readings land near the published 36-31-32 split, agreeing this is a coin-toss match with a slight home lean. The Coach and Sceptic diverge mildly on goals: Dodoma's 12% over rate and 50% clean-sheet record support the 31% over line, while Coastal's 44% over rate and 56% BTTS suggest a touch more goal threat than the model allows.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureDodoma's form and rest edge a close call against a struggling home side.
Dodoma sit 5th on 14 points from 8 games (W4 D2 L2) and arrive unbeaten in five, with 15 days' rest. Coastal Union are 11th on 10 points from 9 (W3 D1 L5) and have lost three of their last six. Home form of W L W D L offers only fragile hope.
Dodoma Jiji: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe near-even 1X2 split looks fair, but the low over line deserves scrutiny.
The model's 36-31-32 split matches a Coastal Union side scoring 0.89 per game against Dodoma conceding 0.62. Yet Coastal's matches go over 2.5 in 44% of cases and both teams score in 56%, above the published 31% over and 39% BTTS, so the under case may be slightly overstated.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Coastal Union are slight favourites at 36%, with Dodoma Jiji on 33% and the draw on 31%. Coastal Union are 11th and Dodoma Jiji 5th in the Tanzanian Premier League. In their last five league games, Coastal Union won three and Dodoma Jiji four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Coastal Union win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 69%
- Dodoma Jiji win or draw
- 64%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 58%
- 3+ goals
- 31%
- 4+ goals
- 13%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 39%
- No
- 61%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Coastal Union and 0.9 from Dodoma Jiji. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (14%), 0–1 (13%), 2–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% | 31% | 32% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2019 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Coastal Union: last 6
LWLWWL · 6 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Namungo | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Oct | vs Singida Black Stars | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Azam | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs JKT Tanzania | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Polisi Tanzania | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Aug | at Simba | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLWDL
Dodoma Jiji: last 6
WDWWWL · 7 scored, 2 conceded
| 16 Oct | at Geita Gold | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Singida Black Stars | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sep | vs Namungo | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sep | vs Mashujaa | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | at Tabora United | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Aug | vs Polisi Tanzania | 0–1 | L |
Last 4 away: WWLD
Season stats
| Coastal Union | Dodoma Jiji | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.89 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.44 | Goals conceded per game | 0.62 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 12% |
| 56% | Both teams scored | 25% |
| 11% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 9 and 8 games.
Tanzanian Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Young Africans | 8 | +13 | 19 | DLWWW |
| 3 | Azam | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWWD |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 9 | +0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji | 8 | +3 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 9 | +1 | 12 | DDLWL |
| 7 | Namungo | 9 | -3 | 12 | WWLLL |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 8 | -4 | 12 | LWWLW |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDLWW |
| 10 | Mbeya City | 8 | -1 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 9 | -5 | 10 | LWLWW |
| 12 | Tabora United | 8 | -1 | 7 | DLWDL |
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | -6 | 7 | LLLLD |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 9 | -5 | 6 | DDWLL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Coastal Union 7Dodoma Jiji 15
- Matches in the last 14 days: Coastal Union 1 · Dodoma Jiji 0
- Weather at kick-off
- 25°C · wind 1 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Tanzanian Premier League average: 2.49 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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