Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Coastal Union to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 51%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three readings land close to the model: a home win near 55%, a draw near 24% and an over 2.5 near half-and-half. The coach sees a leaky defensive contest, the dressing room adds bottom-half desperation with equal rest, and the sceptic only nudges the goal line up. A close Coastal Union win with modest scoring expectation is the consistent picture.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo struggling sides, but the points pressure is heavier on the visitors.
Coastal Union sit 11th on 10 points from 9 games; Kagera Sugar are 15th on 6.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPublished numbers look fair, with goals perhaps a shade low.
At 55/24/21 the model's home lean matches a 4-1-1 head-to-head run and a visitor side yet to keep a clean sheet. The 49% over sits slightly under my read, since Kagera's 67% both-teams-scored and 1.50 goals per game away nudge the total up.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Coastal Union are favourites at 55%, with Kagera Sugar on 21% and the draw on 24%. Coastal Union are 11th and Kagera Sugar 15th in the Tanzanian Premier League. In their last five league games, Coastal Union won three and Kagera Sugar one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Coastal Union win or draw
- 79%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Kagera Sugar win or draw
- 45%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Coastal Union and 1.0 from Kagera Sugar. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% | 24% | 21% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1740 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Coastal Union: last 6
LWLWWL · 6 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Namungo | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Oct | vs Singida Black Stars | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Azam | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs JKT Tanzania | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Polisi Tanzania | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Aug | at Simba | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLWDL
Kagera Sugar: last 6
LDWDLL · 6 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | at JKT Tanzania | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Polisi Tanzania | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Mbeya City | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Fountain Gate | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | vs Azam | 0–2 | L |
| 27 Aug | at Mashujaa | 1–2 | L |
Last 4 away: LWLL
Season stats
| Coastal Union | Kagera Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.89 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.44 | Goals conceded per game | 1.89 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game at home | 0.60 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 56% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 11% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Tanzanian Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mashujaa | 8 | -4 | 12 | LWWLW |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDLWW |
| 10 | Mbeya City | 8 | -1 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 9 | -5 | 10 | LWLWW |
| 12 | Tabora United | 8 | -1 | 7 | DLWDL |
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | -6 | 7 | LLLLD |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 9 | -5 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 9 | -8 | 6 | LDWDL |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Coastal Union won 4, Kagera Sugar 1, 1 draw; 1.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2025 | Kagera Sugar | 2–1 | Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 29 Oct 2024 | Coastal Union | 1–0 | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 21 May 2024 | Kagera Sugar | 1–2 | Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 9 Dec 2023 | Coastal Union | 1–0 | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 21 Jan 2023 | Kagera Sugar | 0–0 | Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 3 Oct 2022 | Coastal Union | 2–0 | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
Match context
- Travel for Kagera Sugar
- 909 km
- Rest days
- Coastal Union 4Kagera Sugar 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Coastal Union 1 · Kagera Sugar 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 26°C · wind 7 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Tanzanian Premier League average: 2.49 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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