Geita Gold vs Fountain Gate prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Geita Gold to win: 59%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three lean the same way: the model makes Geita Gold clear favourites and the table supports it, with Fountain Gate on one win from eight and pointless away form. The sceptic's only caution is the head-to-head, which keeps the draw live.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences, but Geita's home scoring edges a lively game
Fountain Gate score just 0.60 per game away and 0.33 as visitors overall, so the hosts' attacking edge should decide it.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFountain Gate's five-game slide hands the initiative to a nervous host
Geita Gold sit 13th with 7 points from 8, Fountain Gate 16th with 5 from 8. Geita have lost four straight, but Fountain Gate's last six read D L D L L L with one win all season. Ten days of rest each means freshness is no advantage.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongFountain Gate's head-to-head record argues for a tighter line than 59%
Geita's 6-2 win came against Kagera Sugar, and their form since is four straight defeats, so 59% looks a touch high.
Fountain Gate: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Geita Gold are favourites at 59%, with Fountain Gate on 17% and the draw on 24%. Geita Gold are 13th and Fountain Gate 16th in the Tanzanian Premier League. Neither side has won any of their last five league games.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Geita Gold win or draw
- 83%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Fountain Gate win or draw
- 41%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 46%
- No
- 54%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Geita Gold and 0.8 from Fountain Gate. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% | 23% | 17% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1465 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Geita Gold: last 6
LLLLDW · 8 scored, 14 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Dodoma Jiji | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Oct | at Pamba Jiji | 0–4 | L |
| 15 Sep | at Young Africans | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | at Simba | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs Azam | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Kagera Sugar | 6–2 | W |
Last 3 at home: LDW
Fountain Gate: last 6
DLDLLL · 3 scored, 9 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Pamba Jiji | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | vs JKT Tanzania | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Kagera Sugar | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | vs Young Africans | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs Mbeya City | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Aug | at Namungo | 0–1 | L |
Last 3 away: DLL
Season stats
| Geita Gold | Fountain Gate | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.12 | Goals scored per game | 0.50 |
| 1.88 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 2.67 | Scored per game at home | 0.60 |
| 0.20 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| 25% | Both teams scored | 38% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 62% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Tanzanian Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mbeya City | 8 | -1 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 9 | -5 | 10 | LWLWW |
| 12 | Tabora United | 8 | -1 | 7 | DLWDL |
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | -6 | 7 | LLLLD |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 9 | -5 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 9 | -8 | 6 | LDWDL |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Geita Gold won 1, Fountain Gate 2, 1 draw; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 May 2024 | Fountain Gate | 2–1 | Geita Gold | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 21 Dec 2023 | Geita Gold | 1–0 | Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 30 Dec 2022 | Fountain Gate | 2–1 | Geita Gold | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 21 Sep 2022 | Geita Gold | 1–1 | Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
Match context
- Rest days
- Geita Gold 10Fountain Gate 10
- Matches in the last 14 days: Geita Gold 1 · Fountain Gate 1
- Goals in this league
- Tanzanian Premier League average: 2.49 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
