JKT Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
JKT Tanzania to win: 66%, about 2 in 3
Goals call2 goals or fewer 57% · bookies 57% · ✓ 1 goals
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: JKT's home scoring and Kagera's defensive record make the home win the likely outcome, while Kagera's own away scoring and the both-teams-score rate suggest goals at both ends, supporting the 63% over-2.5 number.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Kagera Sugar's chances are better than the bookmakers say. None of them makes Kagera Sugar favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersJKT's home firepower against Kagera's leaky defence
JKT score 2.00 per game at home and Kagera concede 2.00 per game this season with zero clean sheets, so the 2.1 expected goals for the hosts stacks up.
Kagera Sugar: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh The Dressing Room
the table and pressureJKT's form and home run point to a comfortable afternoon
13 points from 8 games puts JKT 5th and climbing, while Kagera sit 15th on 6 points with one win all season. JKT have won four of their last six, are unbeaten in four at home, and both sides had a single game in the last fortnight, so rest is equal. The gap in points and momentum should tell.
Kagera Sugar: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHead-to-head suggests fewer goals than the numbers imply
Kagera are over 2.5 in only 38% of games. Slight lean under.
Kagera Sugar: clearly underrated
More goalsMed Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
JKT Tanzania are clear favourites at 66%, with Kagera Sugar on 11% and the draw on 23%. JKT Tanzania are 5th and Kagera Sugar 15th in the Tanzanian Premier League. In their last five league games, JKT Tanzania won four and Kagera Sugar one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- JKT Tanzania win or draw
- 89%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Kagera Sugar win or draw
- 34%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 69%
- 3+ goals
- 43%
- 4+ goals
- 22%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 37%
- No
- 63%
We expect about 1.8 goals from JKT Tanzania and 0.6 from Kagera Sugar. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (16%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 2–0 (15%), 1–1 (10%), 0–0 (9%), 3–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% | 20% | 19% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #720 | |
| 2 | 66% | 23% | 11% | Prices moved | #896 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
JKT Tanzania: last 6
WWLWWL · 10 scored, 9 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Mbeya City | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | at Fountain Gate | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Coastal Union | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Pamba Jiji | 3–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Namungo | 2–1 | W |
| 24 Aug | at Young Africans | 0–4 | L |
Last 4 at home: WWWD
Kagera Sugar: last 6
DWDLLL · 8 scored, 13 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Polisi Tanzania | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Mbeya City | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Fountain Gate | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | vs Azam | 0–2 | L |
| 27 Aug | at Mashujaa | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | at Geita Gold | 2–6 | L |
Last 3 away: WLL
Season stats
| JKT Tanzania | Kagera Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.38 | Goals scored per game | 1.12 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.60 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Tanzanian Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 8 | +15 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Young Africans | 8 | +13 | 19 | DLWWW |
| 3 | Azam | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWWD |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 9 | +0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji | 8 | +3 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 9 | +1 | 12 | DDLWL |
| 7 | Namungo | 9 | -3 | 12 | WWLLL |
| … | |||||
| 12 | Tabora United | 8 | -1 | 7 | DLWDL |
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | -6 | 7 | LLLLD |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 9 | -5 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 9 | -8 | 6 | LDWDL |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: JKT Tanzania won 3, Kagera Sugar 0, 3 draws; 1.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2025 | JKT Tanzania | 2–0 | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 16 Sep 2024 | Kagera Sugar | 0–0 | JKT Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2 Mar 2024 | Kagera Sugar | 1–1 | JKT Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 29 Sep 2023 | JKT Tanzania | 1–1 | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 1 Jan 2021 | JKT Tanzania | 1–0 | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 7 Sep 2020 | Kagera Sugar | 0–1 | JKT Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
Match context
- Rest days
- JKT Tanzania 5Kagera Sugar 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: JKT Tanzania 1 · Kagera Sugar 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
