Polisi Tanzania vs Pamba Jiji prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Polisi Tanzania to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 57% · bookies 57% · ✓ 2 goals
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: Polisi Tanzania are the stronger side and the model's 57-22-21 split is fair, with the sceptic's only real doubt being the goals line. With Pamba Jiji conceding 1.75 per game and both teams scoring at 62%, the 56% over 2.5 looks broadly right, maybe a touch generous.
What our AI analysts say
Both analysts think Polisi Tanzania's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressurePolisi sit 8th on 11 points from 8 games, five clear of Pamba's 5 points in 15th. Pamba have one win in six and no away win in their last four, conceding 8 in those. Polisi have the lighter recent load too, with 5 days' rest to Pamba's 7 but only one game each in a fortnight.
Polisi Tanzania: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 57% home win looks fair, but the 56% over 2.5 may be a shade high.
But their 62% over-2.5 rate sits against Polisi's 38%, and Polisi's 1.9 expected goals assumes more than their 1.38 per game suggests. The 1X2 numbers look right; the goals line is the debatable one.
Polisi Tanzania: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Polisi Tanzania are favourites at 45%, with Pamba Jiji on 26% and the draw on 29%. Polisi Tanzania are 8th and Pamba Jiji 15th in the Tanzanian Premier League. In their last five league games, Polisi Tanzania won one and Pamba Jiji one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Polisi Tanzania win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Pamba Jiji win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 69%
- 3+ goals
- 43%
- 4+ goals
- 22%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 48%
- No
- 52%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Polisi Tanzania and 1.0 from Pamba Jiji. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% | 22% | 21% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #632 | |
| 2 | 45% | 29% | 26% | Prices moved | #653 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Polisi Tanzania: last 6
DLWLLW · 8 scored, 9 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Kagera Sugar | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Oct | at Mashujaa | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Mbeya City | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Coastal Union | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | at Singida Black Stars | 2–4 | L |
| 25 Aug | at Dodoma Jiji | 1–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: WLWD
Pamba Jiji: last 6
DWLLLL · 7 scored, 11 conceded
| 16 Oct | at Fountain Gate | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Oct | vs Geita Gold | 4–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Tabora United | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | at JKT Tanzania | 0–3 | L |
| 28 Aug | at Young Africans | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | at Azam | 1–2 | L |
Last 4 away: DLLL
Season stats
| Polisi Tanzania | Pamba Jiji | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.38 | Goals scored per game | 1.12 |
| 1.25 | Goals conceded per game | 1.75 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.75 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game away | 0.50 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Tanzanian Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Azam | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWWD |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 9 | +0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji | 8 | +3 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 9 | +1 | 12 | DDLWL |
| 7 | Namungo | 9 | -3 | 12 | WWLLL |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 8 | -4 | 12 | LWWLW |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDLWW |
| … | |||||
| 11 | Coastal Union | 9 | -5 | 10 | LWLWW |
| 12 | Tabora United | 8 | -1 | 7 | DLWDL |
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | -6 | 7 | LLLLD |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 9 | -5 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 9 | -8 | 6 | LDWDL |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLDLL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Polisi Tanzania 5Pamba Jiji 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Polisi Tanzania 1 · Pamba Jiji 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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