Simba vs Mbeya City prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Simba to win: 73%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 53%
Not graded: the match did not take place.
The Verdict
The three readings converge on a strong Simba victory, driven by their superior form and home advantage. The high scoring rates and H2H history suggest the match will be open, with the probability of more than two goals being significant across all analyses.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSimba averages 2.38 goals scored per game and concedes only 0.50. Mbeya City scores 1.00 per game but concedes 1.12. Simba is particularly strong at home, averaging 2.75 goals.
Simba: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSimba's perfect league record and short turnaround contrast with Mbeya City's mid-table standing.
Simba sits 1st in the table with 24 points from 8 games (W8 D0 L0). Mbeya City is 9th with 10 points from 8 games. Simba has only 3 days rest, while Mbeya City has 5 days.
Simba: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market heavily favours Simba, but Mbeya City's historical H2H performance warrants closer inspection.
In the last 6 meetings, Simba won 4, Mbeya City won 1, and there were 1 draws. The published 73% win probability for Simba seems high given the recent H2H results.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Simba are clear favourites at 73%, with Mbeya City on 9% and the draw on 18%. Simba are 1st and Mbeya City 9th in the Tanzanian Premier League. In their last five league games, Simba won five and Mbeya City one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Simba win or draw
- 91%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 82%
- Mbeya City win or draw
- 27%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 41%
- No
- 59%
We expect about 2.2 goals from Simba and 0.6 from Mbeya City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–0 (13%), 3–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 1–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 73% | 18% | 9% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #689 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Simba: last 6
WWWWWW · 19 scored, 3 conceded
| 21 Oct | at 15 de Agosto CAF Champions League | 6–1 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Mashujaa | 6–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Young Africans | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Sep | at Azam | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | vs Geita Gold | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Aug | vs Coastal Union | 1–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: WWWW
Mbeya City: last 6
LLLDWW · 6 scored, 8 conceded
| 18 Oct | at JKT Tanzania | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Kagera Sugar | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Polisi Tanzania | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Sep | at Tabora United | 0–0 | D |
| 28 Aug | at Fountain Gate | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | vs Mashujaa | 2–1 | W |
Last 4 away: LLDW
Season stats
| Simba | Mbeya City | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.38 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 0.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.12 |
| 2.75 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 38% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Tanzanian Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 8 | +15 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Young Africans | 8 | +13 | 19 | DLWWW |
| 3 | Azam | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWWD |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 9 | +0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| … | |||||
| 7 | Namungo | 9 | -3 | 12 | WWLLL |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 8 | -4 | 12 | LWWLW |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDLWW |
| 10 | Mbeya City | 8 | -1 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 9 | -5 | 10 | LWLWW |
| 12 | Tabora United | 8 | -1 | 7 | DLWDL |
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | -6 | 7 | LLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Simba won 4, Mbeya City 1, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jun 2026 | Mbeya City | 0–1 | Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 4 Dec 2025 | Simba | 3–0 | Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 18 Jan 2023 | Simba | 3–2 | Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 23 Nov 2022 | Mbeya City | 1–1 | Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 16 Jun 2022 | Simba | 3–0 | Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 17 Jan 2022 | Mbeya City | 1–0 | Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
Match context
- Rest days
- Simba 3Mbeya City 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Simba 3 · Mbeya City 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
