Azam vs Mashujaa prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Azam to win: 64%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 55%
Not graded: the match did not take place.
The Verdict
All three readings lean clearly to Azam, with probabilities clustered around the published 64/21/15. The Coach and the Dressing Room see a home side controlling the game; the Sceptic notes the head-to-head's 1.2 goals per game and trims the over 2.5 below the published 55%. A home win with moderate goal expectation is the consistent picture.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersAzam's control at home should decide a game Mashujaa rarely win on the road.
Azam concede just 0.88 per game with 38% clean sheets, while Mashujaa score only 0.60 away per game.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThird-place Azam have the stronger platform and the fresher league record.
Azam sit 3rd on 17 points from 8 games (W5 D2 L1, 13-7); Mashujaa are 6th on 12 (W4 D0 L4, 9-13). Azam have won three of their last four at home. Mashujaa arrive with 10 days' rest, Azam 7, so neither is stretched by fixture load.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 64% home number looks fair, but over 2.5 may be a touch generous.
Head-to-head says low scoring: six meetings with 1.2 goals per game and three 0-0s, including two this year. Mashujaa's away form is L L L L W with 3 scored and 10 conceded, which supports the home lean, but their 62% over-2.5 rate sits against a fixture history of tight games.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Azam are clear favourites at 64%, with Mashujaa on 15% and the draw on 21%. Azam are 3rd and Mashujaa 7th in the Tanzanian Premier League. In their last five league games, Azam won three and Mashujaa three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Azam win or draw
- 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- Mashujaa win or draw
- 36%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Azam and 0.9 from Mashujaa. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (10%), 3–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% | 21% | 15% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #688 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Azam: last 6
DWLWWD · 9 scored, 5 conceded
| 16 Oct | at Masr CAF Confederation Cup | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Coastal Union | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Simba | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Sep | vs Namungo | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | at Kagera Sugar | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | at Geita Gold | 2–2 | D |
Last 4 at home: LWWW
Mashujaa: last 6
LWWLWL · 8 scored, 12 conceded
| 13 Oct | at Simba | 1–6 | L |
| 8 Oct | vs Polisi Tanzania | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Sep | vs Singida Black Stars | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Sep | at Dodoma Jiji | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Aug | vs Kagera Sugar | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | at Mbeya City | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLW
Season stats
| Azam | Mashujaa | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.62 | Goals scored per game | 1.12 |
| 0.88 | Goals conceded per game | 1.62 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game away | 0.60 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Tanzanian Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 8 | +15 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Young Africans | 8 | +13 | 19 | DLWWW |
| 3 | Azam | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWWD |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 9 | +0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji | 8 | +3 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 9 | +1 | 12 | DDLWL |
| 7 | Namungo | 9 | -3 | 12 | WWLLL |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 8 | -4 | 12 | LWWLW |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDLWW |
| 10 | Mbeya City | 8 | -1 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 9 | -5 | 10 | LWLWW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Azam won 3, Mashujaa 0, 3 draws; 1.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jun 2026 | Azam | 2–0 | Mashujaa | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 19 Mar 2026 | Mashujaa | 0–0 | Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Azam | 2–0 | Mashujaa | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Mashujaa | 0–0 | Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 17 Apr 2024 | Azam | 0–0 | Mashujaa | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 1 Nov 2023 | Mashujaa | 0–3 | Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
Match context
- Rest days
- Azam 7Mashujaa 10
- Matches in the last 14 days: Azam 1 · Mashujaa 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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