Azam vs Mbeya City prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Azam to win: 61%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersAzam's home scoring edge should decide a match where Mbeya City often fail to score
Azam concede just 0.88 per game with 38% clean sheets, while Mbeya City score only 0.75 away and fail to score in 38% of matches. Azam average 1.50 at home against an away side conceding 1.12. Both-teams-score sits at 45% overall.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThird-place Azam's heavier schedule is the one worry, but the table still points their way
Azam sit 3rd on 17 points from 8 games (W5 D2 L1) against a 10th-placed side on 10 points. They have played twice in 14 days with 4 days' rest, while Mbeya City had 9 days off. Azam's home form reads W L W W W.
Azam: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPublished numbers look fair, though the 0-0 head-to-head earlier this year tempers the goals case
The model's 61/23/16 split matches Azam's 3 wins in the last 6 head-to-head meetings, though the 2026 meeting finished 0-0. Over 2.5 at 47% fits 2.8 goals per game historically and a 2.49 league scoring environment, but Mbeya City's last three league games produced just two goals scored.
Azam: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Azam are clear favourites at 61%, with Mbeya City on 16% and the draw on 23%. Azam are 3rd and Mbeya City 10th in the Tanzanian Premier League. In their last five league games, Azam won three and Mbeya City one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Azam win or draw
- 84%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Mbeya City win or draw
- 39%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 45%
- No
- 55%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Azam and 0.8 from Mbeya City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% | 23% | 16% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1737 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Azam: last 6
WDWLWW · 8 scored, 3 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Masr CAF Confederation Cup | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Oct | at Masr CAF Confederation Cup | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Coastal Union | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Simba | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Sep | vs Namungo | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | at Kagera Sugar | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWWW
Mbeya City: last 6
LLLDWW · 6 scored, 8 conceded
| 18 Oct | at JKT Tanzania | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Kagera Sugar | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Polisi Tanzania | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Sep | at Tabora United | 0–0 | D |
| 28 Aug | at Fountain Gate | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | vs Mashujaa | 2–1 | W |
Last 4 away: LLDW
Season stats
| Azam | Mbeya City | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.62 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 0.88 | Goals conceded per game | 1.12 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 38% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Tanzanian Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 8 | +15 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Young Africans | 8 | +13 | 19 | DLWWW |
| 3 | Azam | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWWD |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 9 | +0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji | 8 | +3 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 9 | +1 | 12 | DDLWL |
| 7 | Namungo | 9 | -3 | 12 | WWLLL |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 8 | -4 | 12 | LWWLW |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDLWW |
| 10 | Mbeya City | 8 | -1 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 9 | -5 | 10 | LWLWW |
| 12 | Tabora United | 8 | -1 | 7 | DLWDL |
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | -6 | 7 | LLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Azam won 3, Mbeya City 1, 2 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | Mbeya City | 0–0 | Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 24 Sep 2025 | Azam | 2–0 | Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 31 Dec 2022 | Azam | 6–1 | Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 13 Sep 2022 | Mbeya City | 0–1 | Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 10 May 2022 | Mbeya City | 2–1 | Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 18 Dec 2021 | Azam | 2–2 | Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
Match context
- Travel for Mbeya City
- 681 km
- Rest days
- Azam 4Mbeya City 9
- Matches in the last 14 days: Azam 2 · Mbeya City 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 28°C · wind 14 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Tanzanian Premier League average: 2.49 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
