Fountain Gate vs Simba prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Simba to win: 60%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 58%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The three analyses converge on a clear Simba advantage, driven by their superior attacking metrics and league standing. While the Sceptic notes the dominance is justified, the Coach and Dressing Room highlight the disparity in form and rest, suggesting a high probability of an away victory.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSimba's overwhelming offensive power is set to meet Fountain Gate's defensive fragility.
Simba averages 2.38 goals per game, conceding only 0.50. Fountain Gate averages 0.50 goals per game and concedes 1.50. Simba has failed to score in 0% of its matches.
Simba: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSimba's perfect league start and fresh legs put them in a commanding position against a struggling Fountain Gate.
Simba sits 1st with 24 points from 8 games (W8 D0 L0). Fountain Gate is 16th with 5 points from 8 games (W1 D2 L5). Simba has only had 3 days rest, compared to Fountain Gate's 12 days.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe high probability for Simba is supported by their perfect away form and dominant head-to-head record.
In the last 6 H2H meetings, Simba won 5 times. Simba's away form is perfect, having won all 5 last matches, scoring 14 goals and conceding 3.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Simba are clear favourites at 60%, with Fountain Gate on 16% and the draw on 24%. Fountain Gate are 16th and Simba 1st in the Tanzanian Premier League. In their last five league games, Fountain Gate won none and Simba five.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Fountain Gate win or draw
- 40%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Simba win or draw
- 84%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 68%
- 3+ goals
- 42%
- 4+ goals
- 21%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 41%
- No
- 59%
We expect about 0.7 goals from Fountain Gate and 1.6 from Simba. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (16%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 0–2 (13%), 1–1 (11%), 0–0 (10%), 1–2 (9%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16% | 24% | 60% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1736 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Fountain Gate: last 6
DLDLLL · 3 scored, 9 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Pamba Jiji | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | vs JKT Tanzania | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Kagera Sugar | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | vs Young Africans | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs Mbeya City | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Aug | at Namungo | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: DLLLW
Simba: last 6
WWWWWW · 21 scored, 3 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs 15 de Agosto CAF Champions League | 3–0 | W |
| 21 Oct | at 15 de Agosto CAF Champions League | 6–1 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Mashujaa | 6–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Young Africans | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Sep | at Azam | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | vs Geita Gold | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WWWWW
Season stats
| Fountain Gate | Simba | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.50 | Goals scored per game | 2.38 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 0.50 |
| 0.60 | Scored per game at home | 2.75 |
| 0.33 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 25% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Tanzanian Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 8 | +15 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Young Africans | 8 | +13 | 19 | DLWWW |
| 3 | Azam | 8 | +6 | 17 | WLWWD |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 9 | +0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| … | |||||
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | -6 | 7 | LLLLD |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 9 | -5 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 9 | -8 | 6 | LDWDL |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 8 | -8 | 5 | DLDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Fountain Gate won 0, Simba 5, 1 draw; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Apr 2026 | Fountain Gate | 0–3 | Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 25 Sep 2025 | Simba | 3–0 | Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 6 Feb 2025 | Fountain Gate | 1–1 | Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Simba | 4–0 | Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 12 Mar 2024 | Simba | 3–1 | Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 8 Oct 2023 | Fountain Gate | 1–2 | Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
Match context
- Rest days
- Fountain Gate 12Simba 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Fountain Gate 1 · Simba 2
- Goals in this league
- Tanzanian Premier League average: 2.49 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
