Mbeya City vs Singida Black Stars prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Mbeya to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 51%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
In short
Mbeya City are slight favourites at 42%, with Singida Black Stars on 32% and the draw on 26%. Mbeya City are 10th and Singida Black Stars 9th in the Tanzanian Premier League. In their last five league games, Mbeya City won one and Singida Black Stars two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Mbeya City win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Singida Black Stars win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 51%
- 4+ goals
- 29%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Mbeya City and 1.2 from Singida Black Stars. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 26% | 32% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2016 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Mbeya City: last 6
LLLDWW · 6 scored, 8 conceded
| 18 Oct | at JKT Tanzania | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Kagera Sugar | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Polisi Tanzania | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Sep | at Tabora United | 0–0 | D |
| 28 Aug | at Fountain Gate | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | vs Mashujaa | 2–1 | W |
Last 4 at home: LWWL
Singida Black Stars: last 6
DWLDLW · 7 scored, 7 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Tusker CAF Confederation Cup | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Tusker CAF Confederation Cup | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | at Coastal Union | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Dodoma Jiji | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Sep | at Mashujaa | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Sep | vs Namungo | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 away: WLDLD
Season stats
| Mbeya City | Singida Black Stars | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.75 |
| 1.12 | Goals conceded per game | 1.38 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 2.75 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Tanzanian Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 9 | +1 | 12 | DDLWL |
| 7 | Namungo | 9 | -3 | 12 | WWLLL |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 8 | -4 | 12 | LWWLW |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDLWW |
| 10 | Mbeya City | 8 | -1 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 9 | -5 | 10 | LWLWW |
| 12 | Tabora United | 8 | -1 | 7 | DLWDL |
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | -6 | 7 | LLLLD |
Match context
- Travel for Singida Black Stars
- 476 km
- Rest days
- Mbeya City 14Singida Black Stars 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Mbeya City 0 · Singida Black Stars 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 22°C · wind 1 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Tanzanian Premier League average: 2.49 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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