Real Valladolid vs Leganés prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Real Valladolid to win: 52%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The split comes on goals: the coach sees 2.20 home scoring against a leaky defence, but the sceptic notes Leganés' 27% over-rate and 0.33 away goals per game, shading the 47% over line slightly under.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Real Valladolid's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersValladolid's home scoring meets Leganés' away drought
Leganés fail to score in 55% of matches, so a home win with goals looks the likeliest shape.
Real Valladolid: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo sides on 12 points, both desperate for the win
These teams sit level on 12 points from 11 games with identical W3 D3 L5 records, so three points here matter enormously. Valladolid's 5-0 win over Albacete shows what they can do at home, while Leganés arrive on a four-game winless run.
Leganés: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome prices look fair but the total line may be generous
Valladolid's 51% seems right given Leganés have lost three straight away games conceding nine. But the 47% over 2.5 line looks high: Leganés go over 2.5 in only 27% of matches and have scored 0.33 per game away, so I'd shade under.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Real Valladolid are favourites at 52%, with Leganés on 23% and the draw on 25%. Real Valladolid are 15th and Leganés 17th in Segunda División. In their last five league games, Real Valladolid won two and Leganés none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Real Valladolid win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Leganés win or draw
- 49%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 49%
- No
- 51%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Real Valladolid and 1.0 from Leganés. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% | 25% | 21% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1814 | |
| 2 | 51% | 25% | 23% | Prices moved | #2187 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Real Valladolid: last 6
LLWDWD · 14 scored, 9 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Granada CF | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Eldense | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Oct | vs Albacete | 5–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | at Las Palmas | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Cordoba | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at AD Ceuta FC | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: LWWLW
Leganés: last 6
DLLLLW · 4 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Mallorca | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Oct | vs Cordoba | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Almeria | 0–3 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Cadiz | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Sep | vs Castellón | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Granada CF | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 away: LLLDW
Season stats
| Real Valladolid | Leganés | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.45 | Goals scored per game | 0.64 |
| 1.45 | Goals conceded per game | 1.45 |
| 2.20 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.83 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 55% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 27% |
| 55% | Both teams scored | 27% |
| 18% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 55% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tenerife | 11 | -2 | 14 | DDDLD |
| 13 | Eldense | 11 | -2 | 14 | LWWWL |
| 14 | Las Palmas | 11 | -5 | 14 | WLLDL |
| 15 | Real Valladolid | 11 | +0 | 12 | LLWDW |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 11 | -5 | 12 | LDWLD |
| 17 | Leganés | 11 | -9 | 12 | DLLLL |
| 18 | Cadiz | 11 | +0 | 10 | WLLWD |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 11 | -5 | 10 | LLWDW |
| 20 | Real Sociedad II | 11 | -8 | 8 | LLLLL |
Match context
- Travel for Leganés
- 168 km
- Rest days
- Real Valladolid 9Leganés 9
- Matches in the last 14 days: Real Valladolid 1 · Leganés 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 15°C · wind 11 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Segunda División average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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