Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Real Oviedo to win: 56%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 52% · bookies 52%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: Oviedo's tight home defence and better recent run against a Las Palmas side conceding 1.73 per game support the published 56% home price. The main doubt is goals - Oviedo score only 1.00 per game at home, so the 48% over line looks slightly high, and the panel shades just under it.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Real Oviedo's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersOviedo's home defence meets Las Palmas' leaky away record
Oviedo have kept clean sheets in 45% of matches and conceded just 2 goals across their last 5 at home. Las Palmas concede 1.73 per game and let in 11 in their last 5 away. Both teams score only 49% of the time, so a home side keeping things tight looks the likeliest shape.
Real Oviedo: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table pair, but Oviedo's form and rest edge the stakes
Oviedo sit 9th on 18 points from 11 games, three ahead of 14th-placed Las Palmas on 14. Oviedo have won 3 of their last 6, Las Palmas just 1, and both had 8 days' rest. With little separating them in the table, home momentum matters.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices look fair, though the over may be a touch generous
But Oviedo score only 1.00 per game at home and Las Palmas 1.00 away, which sits awkwardly with a 48% over line on a 2.7 goals-per-match league. I'd shade the under slightly.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Real Oviedo are favourites at 56%, with Las Palmas on 20% and the draw on 24%. Real Oviedo are 9th and Las Palmas 14th in Segunda División. In their last five league games, Real Oviedo won three and Las Palmas one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Real Oviedo win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Las Palmas win or draw
- 44%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 73%
- 3+ goals
- 48%
- 4+ goals
- 26%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 49%
- No
- 51%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Real Oviedo and 0.9 from Las Palmas. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% | 22% | 19% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1811 | |
| 2 | 56% | 24% | 20% | Prices moved | #2186 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Real Oviedo: last 6
DWWLWL · 11 scored, 11 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Almeria | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | at AD Ceuta FC | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs Eibar | 3–1 | W |
| 2 Oct | at Eldense | 1–4 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Sporting Gijon | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Sabadell | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWDLD
Las Palmas: last 6
WLLDLL · 7 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Real Sociedad II | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Castellón | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Mallorca | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Valladolid | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | at Eibar | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Burgos | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLWLW
Season stats
| Real Oviedo | Las Palmas | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.36 | Goals scored per game | 1.27 |
| 1.09 | Goals conceded per game | 1.73 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 1.60 |
| 55% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| 45% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 45% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 18% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Burgos | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWLLW |
| 7 | Mallorca | 11 | +7 | 19 | DDWDL |
| 8 | Sporting Gijon | 11 | -2 | 19 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Real Oviedo | 11 | +3 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 10 | Sabadell | 11 | +2 | 17 | DLWDD |
| 11 | Cordoba | 11 | -3 | 15 | WWLWL |
| 12 | Tenerife | 11 | -2 | 14 | DDDLD |
| 13 | Eldense | 11 | -2 | 14 | LWWWL |
| 14 | Las Palmas | 11 | -5 | 14 | WLLDL |
| 15 | Valladolid | 11 | +0 | 12 | LLWDW |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 11 | -5 | 12 | LDWLD |
| 17 | Leganes | 11 | -9 | 12 | DLLLL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Real Oviedo 8Las Palmas 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Real Oviedo 1 · Las Palmas 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 15°C · wind 5 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Segunda División average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
