Eldense vs Granada prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Eldense to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 50% · bookies 50%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings cluster near the published numbers: a tight game with Eldense's home scoring (1.80 per game) against Granada's stronger overall record (5th, 20 points, four wins in six).
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Granada's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes Granada favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides score freely enough to suggest an open game at Elda.
Eldense fail to score in 45% of games, so Granada's 36% clean-sheet rate matters. Both teams score sits at 54% published.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureGranada's form and position make them live favourites despite the away trip.
Granada sit 5th on 20 points from 11 games and have won four of their last six; Eldense are 13th on 14 points and lost their last match at Albacete 0-2. Eldense have won three of their last five at home, but Granada's rest edge (8 days vs 6) is slight.
Granada: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market's home lean looks generous given the season records.
Eldense score just 0.67 per game away but 1.80 at home, while Granada concede 1.27 per game and keep clean sheets 36% of the time. Granada have lost only 3 of 11 and score 1.64 per game. The 42-28-30 split may understate Granada slightly; over 2.5 at 50% matches both sides' 55% over rates.
Granada: slightly underrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Eldense are slight favourites at 42%, with Granada on 30% and the draw on 28%. Eldense are 13th and Granada 5th in Segunda División. In their last five league games, Eldense won three and Granada four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Eldense win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Granada win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Eldense and 1.2 from Granada. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 1–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 25% | 33% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1817 | |
| 2 | 42% | 28% | 30% | Prices moved | #2188 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Eldense: last 6
LWWWLL · 10 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Albacete | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Valladolid | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Cordoba | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Oct | vs Oviedo | 4–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Burgos | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Eibar | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWLDD
Granada: last 6
WWWWLL · 12 scored, 9 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Valladolid | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Cadiz | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | at Burgos | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | at Real Sociedad II | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs FC Andorra | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Leganes | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WWLLW
Season stats
| Eldense | Granada | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.18 | Goals scored per game | 1.64 |
| 1.36 | Goals conceded per game | 1.27 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.80 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 55% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| 45% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 18% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 45% | Failed to score | 18% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Almeria | 11 | +13 | 25 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | +7 | 22 | LDLWW |
| 4 | Girona | 11 | +12 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Granada | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Burgos | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWLLW |
| 7 | Mallorca | 11 | +7 | 19 | DDWDL |
| 8 | Sporting Gijon | 11 | -2 | 19 | LWWWL |
| … | |||||
| 10 | Sabadell | 11 | +2 | 17 | DLWDD |
| 11 | Cordoba | 11 | -3 | 15 | WWLWL |
| 12 | Tenerife | 11 | -2 | 14 | DDDLD |
| 13 | Eldense | 11 | -2 | 14 | LWWWL |
| 14 | Las Palmas | 11 | -5 | 14 | WLLDL |
| 15 | Valladolid | 11 | +0 | 12 | LLWDW |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 11 | -5 | 12 | LDWLD |
Match context
- Travel for Granada
- 285 km
- Rest days
- Eldense 6Granada 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Eldense 2 · Granada 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 20°C · wind 10 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Segunda División average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
