Real Sociedad II vs Girona prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Girona to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 58% · bookies 58%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The over 2.5 line sits near 58%, supported by Sociedad II's defensive record but tempered by Girona's modest away scoring rate.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersGirona's attack against a leaky home defence points to goals and an away edge.
Sociedad II concede 2.00 per game with zero clean sheets, while Girona concede just 0.91 and keep clean sheets 36% of the time. Girona average 2.00 scored per game, 2.29 away.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFourth hosts 20th, and the table gap plus a six-match losing run points the same way.
Girona sit 4th on 21 points from 11 games, winning six of them, while Sociedad II are 20th on 8 points having lost seven. The home side have lost six straight and gone L L L D L at home; both had six days' rest, so the gap in form and points should tell.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe numbers look broadly right, though Girona's away form is less emphatic than the price suggests.
The published numbers give Girona 46% and over 2.5 at 58%. Form is one-sided: Sociedad II have lost six straight, Girona won four of six.
Girona: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Girona are favourites at 46%, with Real Sociedad II on 29% and the draw on 25%. Real Sociedad II are 20th and Girona 4th in Segunda División. In their last five league games, Real Sociedad II won none and Girona three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Real Sociedad II win or draw
- 54%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Girona win or draw
- 71%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Real Sociedad II and 1.7 from Girona. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 2–1 (7%), 0–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% | 25% | 46% | Stats preview | #1865 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Real Sociedad II: last 6
LLLLLL · 6 scored, 16 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Las Palmas | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Almeria | 2–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Celta de Vigo II | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Granada CF | 2–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | at AD Ceuta FC | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Mallorca | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: LLLDL
Girona: last 6
WWDDWW · 12 scored, 3 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Celta de Vigo II | 5–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs FC Andorra | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | at Tenerife | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Oct | vs Mallorca | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Sep | vs Albacete | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Cadiz | 2–1 | W |
Last 4 away: DWWL
Season stats
| Real Sociedad II | Girona | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.27 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 0.91 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.29 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 64% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 73% | Both teams scored | 64% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 9% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 11 | +18 | 26 | WWLDW |
| 2 | Almeria | 11 | +13 | 25 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | +7 | 22 | LDLWW |
| 4 | Girona | 11 | +12 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Granada CF | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Burgos | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWLLW |
| 7 | Mallorca | 11 | +7 | 19 | DDWDL |
| … | |||||
| 17 | Leganes | 11 | -9 | 12 | DLLLL |
| 18 | Cadiz | 11 | +0 | 10 | WLLWD |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 11 | -5 | 10 | LLWDW |
| 20 | Real Sociedad II | 11 | -8 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 11 | -15 | 5 | LLLDW |
| 22 | Albacete | 11 | -14 | 4 | WLLLL |
Match context
- Travel for Girona
- 419 km
- Rest days
- Real Sociedad II 6Girona 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Real Sociedad II 1 · Girona 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 18°C · wind 8 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Segunda División average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
