Eibar vs Almería prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Eibar 39%)
Goals call3+ goals 52% · bookies 52%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings land near the published numbers: a tight match with Eibar marginally favoured at home despite Almería's superior table position and six-match unbeaten run. The Coach leans towards goals given both sides' scoring rates, while the Sceptic sees slight value in the hosts' strong home record.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks Almería are underrated; The Sceptic thinks Eibar are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo attack-minded sides point to goals at Ipurua
Eibar score 1.82 per game at home and Almería 2.50 away, with both teams scoring in 56% of the market's matches. Eibar's games go over 2.5 goals 64% of the time and they keep clean sheets only 36%, so chances should flow both ways.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSecond visits third with Almería's form the stronger
Almería sit 2nd on 25 points from 11 games (W8 D1 L2) and arrive unbeaten in six, while 3rd-placed Eibar on 22 points have lost three of their last six. Three points here would open a real gap in the race at the top, so both sides have plenty to play for.
Almería: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome price looks slightly generous given Eibar's home record
Eibar have won four of their last five at home (D W W W L, 9 scored, 6 conceded), yet the market makes them only 39%. Almería's away form reads W W W L L with just 4 conceded, so the 33% away price is fair, but I nudge the hosts up a touch.
Eibar: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Eibar are slight favourites at 39%, with Almería on 33% and the draw on 28%. Eibar are 3rd and Almería 2nd in Segunda División. In their last five league games, Eibar won two and Almería four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Eibar win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Almería win or draw
- 61%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Eibar and 1.3 from Almería. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% | 25% | 34% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1866 | |
| 2 | 39% | 28% | 33% | Prices moved | #2121 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Eibar: last 6
LDLWWW · 10 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Cordoba | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Mallorca | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Oct | at Oviedo | 1–3 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Albacete | 3–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Las Palmas | 3–2 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Eldense | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWWL
Almería: last 6
DWWWWW · 14 scored, 5 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Oviedo | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Real Sociedad II | 4–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Leganes | 3–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Burgos | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Mallorca | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Celta de Vigo II | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WWWLL
Season stats
| Eibar | Almería | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.82 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 1.18 | Goals conceded per game | 0.82 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 2.50 |
| 1.83 | Scored per game away | 1.40 |
| 64% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| 55% | Both teams scored | 36% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 45% |
| 9% | Failed to score | 18% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 11 | +18 | 26 | WWLDW |
| 2 | Almería | 11 | +13 | 25 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | +7 | 22 | LDLWW |
| 4 | Girona | 11 | +12 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Granada CF | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Burgos | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWLLW |
Match context
- Travel for Almería
- 705 km
- Rest days
- Eibar 7Almería 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Eibar 1 · Almería 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 19°C · wind 5 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Segunda División average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
