Burgos vs Castellón prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Castellón to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three analyses converge on a match where Castellón's quality and defensive structure are key factors. While Burgos is capable of scoring at home, the market and data suggest Castellón has the edge to secure the result.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Burgos's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Burgos favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersCastellón's defensive solidity contrasts with Burgos' high-scoring home attack.
Castellón averages 2.00 goals scored and 0.36 conceded per game. Burgos scores 1.67 per game at home but concedes 1.09.
Burgos: clearly underrated
Med The Dressing Room
the table and pressureCastellón's top-of-the-table position offers a significant advantage over Burgos.
Castellón leads the table with 26 points from 11 games. Burgos sits in 6th place with 20 points.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market appears to correctly price Castellón's superior form and defensive record.
Castellón has won 4 of its last 5 away games, scoring 9 goals. Burgos has scored 7 goals in its last 5 home fixtures.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Castellón are favourites at 46%, with Burgos on 26% and the draw on 28%. Burgos are 6th and Castellón 1st in Segunda División. In their last five league games, Burgos won three and Castellón three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Burgos win or draw
- 54%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Castellón win or draw
- 74%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Burgos and 1.6 from Castellón. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 0–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% | 28% | 44% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1815 | |
| 2 | 26% | 28% | 46% | Prices moved | #2189 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Burgos: last 6
WWLLWW · 8 scored, 6 conceded
| 26 Oct | at FC Andorra | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Sabadell | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs Granada CF | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Almeria | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Eldense | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Las Palmas | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWWD
Castellón: last 6
WWLDWW · 15 scored, 2 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Sporting Gijon | 4–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Las Palmas | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at FC Andorra | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs AD Ceuta FC | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Sep | at Leganes | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Tenerife | 5–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WLWWW
Season stats
| Burgos | Castellón | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.45 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 1.09 | Goals conceded per game | 0.36 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game at home | 2.40 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 1.67 |
| 55% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 55% | Both teams scored | 27% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 64% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 18% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 11 | +18 | 26 | WWLDW |
| 2 | Almeria | 11 | +13 | 25 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | +7 | 22 | LDLWW |
| 4 | Girona | 11 | +12 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Granada CF | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Burgos | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWLLW |
| 7 | Mallorca | 11 | +7 | 19 | DDWDL |
| 8 | Sporting Gijon | 11 | -2 | 19 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Oviedo | 11 | +3 | 18 | DWWLW |
Match context
- Travel for Castellón
- 402 km
- Rest days
- Burgos 5Castellón 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Burgos 2 · Castellón 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 10 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Segunda División average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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