Ceuta vs Sporting Gijón prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Ceuta 37%)
Goals call3+ goals 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The 1X2 stays close to the published 37-26-37, tilted a few points towards the away side.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Sporting Gijón's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersCeuta's leaky defence meets a Sporting side that scores steadily but keeps things tight.
Sporting concede 1.18 a game with clean sheets in 36%, but failed to score in 45%.
Sporting Gijón: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureCeuta's 5 points from 11 games against Sporting's 19 paints a clear gap in confidence.
Ceuta sit 21st on 5 points from 11 games (W1 D2 L8) and have lost four of their last six; at home it reads L L W D L. Sporting are 8th on 19 points (W6 D1 L4) and won three of their last six. Both had a light fortnight: Ceuta on 7 days rest, Sporting 6, with an 850 km trip.
Sporting Gijón: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongSporting's 45% failed-to-score tempers that. Expected goals are level at 1.4 each, and 2+ goals land in 77% of matches in this competition.
Ceuta: slightly overrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Ceuta are slight favourites at 37%, with Sporting Gijón on 37% and the draw on 26%. Ceuta are 21st and Sporting Gijón 8th in Segunda División. In their last five league games, Ceuta won one and Sporting Gijón three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Ceuta win or draw
- 63%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Sporting Gijón win or draw
- 63%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Ceuta and 1.4 from Sporting Gijón. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% | 26% | 41% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1989 | |
| 2 | 37% | 26% | 37% | Prices moved | #2220 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Ceuta: last 6
LLLDWD · 8 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Cadiz | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Oviedo | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Sabadell | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | at Castellón | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Real Sociedad II | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Valladolid | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: LLWDL
Sporting Gijón: last 6
LWWWLW · 9 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Castellón | 0–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Albacete | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Cadiz | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Celta de Vigo II | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Oviedo | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at FC Andorra | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LWLWW
Season stats
| Ceuta | Sporting Gijón | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.91 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 2.27 | Goals conceded per game | 1.18 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 64% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| 73% | Both teams scored | 27% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 45% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Granada CF | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Burgos | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWLLW |
| 7 | Mallorca | 11 | +7 | 19 | DDWDL |
| 8 | Sporting Gijón | 11 | -2 | 19 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Oviedo | 11 | +3 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 10 | Sabadell | 11 | +2 | 17 | DLWDD |
| 11 | Cordoba | 11 | -3 | 15 | WWLWL |
| … | |||||
| 18 | Cadiz | 11 | +0 | 10 | WLLWD |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 11 | -5 | 10 | LLWDW |
| 20 | Real Sociedad II | 11 | -8 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 21 | Ceuta | 11 | -15 | 5 | LLLDW |
| 22 | Albacete | 11 | -14 | 4 | WLLLL |
Match context
- Travel for Sporting Gijón
- 850 km
- Rest days
- Ceuta 7Sporting Gijón 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Ceuta 1 · Sporting Gijón 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 20°C · wind 33 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Segunda División average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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