Mallorca vs Cádiz prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Mallorca to win: 65%, about 2 in 3
Goals call2 goals or fewer 51% · bookies 51%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: Mallorca's home record and defensive numbers justify the 65% home win, while Cádiz's away form and leaky defence offer little counterweight. On goals, the Dressing Room sees a lower-scoring script, the Coach is near the line and the Sceptic leans slightly over. The published numbers look broadly well judged.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Cádiz's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Cádiz favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersMallorca's tight defence meets Cádiz's leaky back line in Palma
Mallorca concede just 0.55 per game with clean sheets in 55% of matches, and they score 2.00 per game at home.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMallorca's home run should prove too strong for struggling Cádiz
Mallorca sit 7th on 19 points, comfortable, while Cádiz are 18th on 10 after one win in six. Mallorca have won four of their last five at home and both sides had 8-9 days' rest, so fatigue is no excuse for the visitors.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongCádiz's attack keeps their games alive more than the prices suggest
The 65% home price reflects Mallorca's defence, but Cádiz score 1.27 per game and both teams scored in 55% of their matches, well above Mallorca's 27%. Their 45% over-2.5 rate and 5 goals in 4 away games hint the 49% total line could be slightly light.
Cádiz: slightly underrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Mallorca are clear favourites at 65%, with Cádiz on 13% and the draw on 22%. Mallorca are 7th and Cádiz 18th in Segunda División. In their last five league games, Mallorca won one and Cádiz two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Mallorca win or draw
- 87%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Cádiz win or draw
- 35%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 44%
- No
- 56%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Mallorca and 0.7 from Cádiz. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 3–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% | 26% | 17% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1816 | |
| 2 | 65% | 22% | 13% | Prices moved | #2190 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Mallorca: last 6
DDWDLW · 6 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Leganes | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Eibar | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Las Palmas | 3–1 | W |
| 4 Oct | at Girona | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Almeria | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Real Sociedad II | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWWW
Cádiz: last 6
WLLWDL · 9 scored, 7 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs AD Ceuta FC | 3–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Granada CF | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Sporting Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Leganes | 4–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Tenerife | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Girona | 1–2 | L |
Last 4 away: LDLD
Season stats
| Mallorca | Cádiz | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.18 | Goals scored per game | 1.27 |
| 0.55 | Goals conceded per game | 1.27 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.29 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 18% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 27% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 55% | Clean sheets | 18% |
| 36% | Failed to score | 36% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Girona | 11 | +12 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Granada CF | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Burgos | 11 | +4 | 20 | WWLLW |
| 7 | Mallorca | 11 | +7 | 19 | DDWDL |
| 8 | Sporting Gijon | 11 | -2 | 19 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Oviedo | 11 | +3 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 10 | Sabadell | 11 | +2 | 17 | DLWDD |
| … | |||||
| 15 | Valladolid | 11 | +0 | 12 | LLWDW |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 11 | -5 | 12 | LDWLD |
| 17 | Leganes | 11 | -9 | 12 | DLLLL |
| 18 | Cádiz | 11 | +0 | 10 | WLLWD |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 11 | -5 | 10 | LLWDW |
| 20 | Real Sociedad II | 11 | -8 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 11 | -15 | 5 | LLLDW |
Match context
- Rest days
- Mallorca 9Cádiz 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Mallorca 1 · Cádiz 1
- Goals in this league
- Segunda División average: 2.70 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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